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Deep Kalman Filters (arxiv.org)
2 points by fitzwatermellow on Dec 23, 2015 | hide | past | pdf | discuss on HN

In plain words: Kalman filters track hidden states that change over time from noisy measurements; this one lets a neural network learn them from data, so it can answer what-if questions. It modeled digit sequences and predicted what would have happened to 8,000 patients from health records.

Abstract

Kalman Filters are one of the most influential models of time-varying phenomena. They admit an intuitive probabilistic interpretation, have a simple functional form, and enjoy widespread adoption in a variety of disciplines. Motivated by recent variational methods for learning deep generative models, we introduce a unified algorithm to efficiently learn a broad spectrum of Kalman filters. Of particular interest is the use of temporal generative models for counterfactual inference. We investigate the efficacy of such models for counterfactual inference, and to that end we introduce the "Healing MNIST" dataset where long-term structure, noise and actions are applied to sequences of digits. We show the efficacy of our method for modeling this dataset. We further show how our model can be used for counterfactual inference for patients, based on electronic health record data of 8,000 patients over 4.5 years.

Rahul G. Krishnan, Uri Shalit, David Sontag
arXiv:1511.05121 · stat.ML, cs.LG · submitted Nov 16, 2015 · updated Nov 25, 2015
abstract · pdf · html · 17 pages, 14 figures: Fixed typo in Fig. 1(b) and added reference

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