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Deep Learning for Real Time Crime Forecasting (arxiv.org)
2 points by Katydid on Jul 17, 2017 | hide | past | pdf | discuss on HN

In plain words: A deep learning system turns crime records into regular space-time grids and learns layered patterns to forecast how crime is spread across Los Angeles. Tested on six months of data, it predicted crime distributions with high accuracy despite crime being rare and irregular.

Abstract

Accurate real time crime prediction is a fundamental issue for public safety, but remains a challenging problem for the scientific community. Crime occurrences depend on many complex factors. Compared to many predictable events, crime is sparse. At different spatio-temporal scales, crime distributions display dramatically different patterns. These distributions are of very low regularity in both space and time. In this work, we adapt the state-of-the-art deep learning spatio-temporal predictor, ST-ResNet [Zhang et al, AAAI, 2017], to collectively predict crime distribution over the Los Angeles area. Our models are two staged. First, we preprocess the raw crime data. This includes regularization in both space and time to enhance predictable signals. Second, we adapt hierarchical structures of residual convolutional units to train multi-factor crime prediction models. Experiments over a half year period in Los Angeles reveal highly accurate predictive power of our models.

Bao Wang, Duo Zhang, Duanhao Zhang, P. Jeffery Brantingham, Andrea L. Bertozzi
arXiv:1707.03340 · math.NA, cs.LG, stat.ML · submitted Jul 9, 2017
abstract · pdf · html · 4 pages, 6 figures, NOLTA, 2017

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