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Deep Learning for Forecasting Stock Returns in the Cross-Section (arxiv.org)
13 points by cardosof on Mar 22, 2018 | hide | past | pdf | discuss on HN

In plain words: A deep neural network was trained to rank Japanese stocks by their returns one month ahead, using many layers to find patterns in the data. It beat the same network with fewer layers and the usual machine-learning models.

Abstract

Many studies have been undertaken by using machine learning techniques, including neural networks, to predict stock returns. Recently, a method known as deep learning, which achieves high performance mainly in image recognition and speech recognition, has attracted attention in the machine learning field. This paper implements deep learning to predict one-month-ahead stock returns in the cross-section in the Japanese stock market and investigates the performance of the method. Our results show that deep neural networks generally outperform shallow neural networks, and the best networks also outperform representative machine learning models. These results indicate that deep learning shows promise as a skillful machine learning method to predict stock returns in the cross-section.

Masaya Abe, Hideki Nakayama
arXiv:1801.01777 · q-fin.ST, cs.LG · submitted Jan 3, 2018 · updated Jun 13, 2018
abstract · pdf · 12 pages, 2 figures, 8 tables, accepted at PAKDD 2018

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