In plain words: A statistical model guesses which homes have lead pipes and updates the guess each time a crew digs one up, targeting inspectors to the likeliest spots instead of checking every pipe. It guided Flint's search despite missing records and works in other cities too.
Abstract
We detail our ongoing work in Flint, Michigan to detect pipes made of lead and other hazardous metals. After elevated levels of lead were detected in residents' drinking water, followed by an increase in blood lead levels in area children, the state and federal governments directed over $125 million to replace water service lines, the pipes connecting each home to the water system. In the absence of accurate records, and with the high cost of determining buried pipe materials, we put forth a number of predictive and procedural tools to aid in the search and removal of lead infrastructure. Alongside these statistical and machine learning approaches, we describe our interactions with government officials in recommending homes for both inspection and replacement, with a focus on the statistical model that adapts to incoming information. Finally, in light of discussions about increased spending on infrastructure development by the federal government, we explore how our approach generalizes beyond Flint to other municipalities nationwide.
Jacob Abernethy, Alex Chojnacki, Arya Farahi, Eric Schwartz, Jared Webb
arXiv:1806.10692 · cs.LG, cs.CY, stat.AP, stat.ML · submitted Jun 10, 2018 · updated Aug 17, 2018
abstract · pdf · html · 10 pages, 10 figures, To appear in KDD 2018, For associated promotional video, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbIn_axYu9E