In plain words: Heart ultrasound videos and heart-rhythm traces feed models that predict a patient's one-year chance of dying and show how much each factor adds to the risk. The tiniest uses ten numbers and scores 0.72 on a 0-to-1 risk-ranking scale; the full one reaches 0.89.
Abstract · A Large-scale Multimodal Study for Predicting Mortality Risk Using Minimal and Low Parameter Models and Separable Risk Assessment
The majority of biomedical studies use limited datasets that may not generalize over large heterogeneous datasets that have been collected over several decades. The current paper develops and validates several multimodal models that can predict 1-year mortality based on a massive clinical dataset. Our focus on predicting 1-year mortality can provide a sense of urgency to the patients. Using the largest dataset of its kind, the paper considers the development and validation of multimodal models based on 25,137,015 videos associated with 699,822 echocardiography studies from 316,125 patients, and 2,922,990 8-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) traces from 631,353 patients. Our models allow us to assess the contribution of individual factors and modalities to the overall risk. Our approach allows us to develop extremely low-parameter models that use optimized feature selection based on feature importance. Based on available clinical information, we construct a family of models that are made available in the DISIML package. Overall, performance ranges from an AUC of 0.72 with just ten parameters to an AUC of 0.89 with under 105k for the full multimodal model. The proposed approach represents a modular neural network framework that can provide insights into global risk trends and guide therapies for reducing mortality risk.
Alvaro E. Ulloa Cerna, Marios Pattichis, David P. vanMaanen, Linyuan Jing, Aalpen A. Patel, Joshua V. Stough, Christopher M. Haggerty, Brandon K. Fornwalt
arXiv:1901.08125 · cs.LG, stat.ML · submitted Jan 23, 2019 · updated Apr 29, 2025
abstract · pdf · html