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Recurrent Neural Processes (arxiv.org)
3 points by Anon84 on Jun 17, 2019 | hide | past | pdf | discuss on HN

In plain words: It extends neural processes—models that learn from few examples and report uncertainty—to time series, capturing slow hidden changes by treating chunks of the series as independent to stay fast. It beat standard neural processes on real-world time series and nonlinear systems, especially with little data.

Abstract

We extend Neural Processes (NPs) to sequential data through Recurrent NPs or RNPs, a family of conditional state space models. RNPs model the state space with Neural Processes. Given time series observed on fast real-world time scales but containing slow long-term variabilities, RNPs may derive appropriate slow latent time scales. They do so in an efficient manner by establishing conditional independence among subsequences of the time series. Our theoretically grounded framework for stochastic processes expands the applicability of NPs while retaining their benefits of flexibility, uncertainty estimation, and favorable runtime with respect to Gaussian Processes (GPs). We demonstrate that state spaces learned by RNPs benefit predictive performance on real-world time-series data and nonlinear system identification, even in the case of limited data availability.

Timon Willi, Jonathan Masci, Jürgen Schmidhuber, Christian Osendorfer
arXiv:1906.05915 · cs.LG, stat.ML · submitted Jun 13, 2019 · updated Nov 5, 2019
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