In plain words: Robots that plan with a learned world model often misjudge how sure its predictions are. A simple fix tunes those judgments so stated odds match what happens; on a simulated running task it hit top performance with 50% fewer samples than the best rival.
Abstract
Estimates of predictive uncertainty are important for accurate model-based planning and reinforcement learning. However, predictive uncertainties---especially ones derived from modern deep learning systems---can be inaccurate and impose a bottleneck on performance. This paper explores which uncertainties are needed for model-based reinforcement learning and argues that good uncertainties must be calibrated, i.e. their probabilities should match empirical frequencies of predicted events. We describe a simple way to augment any model-based reinforcement learning agent with a calibrated model and show that doing so consistently improves planning, sample complexity, and exploration. On the \textsc{HalfCheetah} MuJoCo task, our system achieves state-of-the-art performance using 50\% fewer samples than the current leading approach. Our findings suggest that calibration can improve the performance of model-based reinforcement learning with minimal computational and implementation overhead.
Ali Malik, Volodymyr Kuleshov, Jiaming Song, Danny Nemer, Harlan Seymour, Stefano Ermon
arXiv:1906.08312 · cs.LG, stat.ML · submitted Jun 19, 2019
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