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Drogon: A Causal Reasoning Framework for Future Trajectory Forecast (arxiv.org)
1 point by sel1 on Aug 4, 2019 | hide | past | pdf | discuss on HN

In plain words: The model guesses each driver's likely goal from how cars interact, then draws the path toward that goal instead of predicting motion step by step. It aims to forecast vehicle paths more accurately, and the same setup also extends to pedestrians.

Abstract · DROGON: A Trajectory Prediction Model based on Intention-Conditioned Behavior Reasoning

We propose a Deep RObust Goal-Oriented trajectory prediction Network (DROGON) for accurate vehicle trajectory prediction by considering behavioral intentions of vehicles in traffic scenes. Our main insight is that the behavior (i.e., motion) of drivers can be reasoned from their high level possible goals (i.e., intention) on the road. To succeed in such behavior reasoning, we build a conditional prediction model to forecast goal-oriented trajectories with the following stages: (i) relational inference where we encode relational interactions of vehicles using the perceptual context; (ii) intention estimation to compute the probability distributions of intentional goals based on the inferred relations; and (iii) behavior reasoning where we reason about the behaviors of vehicles as trajectories conditioned on the intentions. To this end, we extend the proposed framework to the pedestrian trajectory prediction task, showing the potential applicability toward general trajectory prediction.

Chiho Choi, Srikanth Malla, Abhishek Patil, Joon Hee Choi
arXiv:1908.00024 · cs.CV, cs.RO · submitted Jul 31, 2019 · updated Nov 6, 2020
abstract · pdf · html · Conference on Robot Learning (CoRL) 2020

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