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Precog: PREdiction Conditioned on Goals in Visual Multi-Agent Settings (arxiv.org)
2 points by sel1 on Oct 2, 2019 | hide | past | pdf | discuss on HN

In plain words: A model predicts how vehicles will move, using past positions and laser sensor readings, and can say what happens if the self-driving car pursues a chosen goal. It beat the previous best forecaster, and its guesses improved for all cars when told that goal.

Abstract · PRECOG: PREdiction Conditioned On Goals in Visual Multi-Agent Settings

For autonomous vehicles (AVs) to behave appropriately on roads populated by human-driven vehicles, they must be able to reason about the uncertain intentions and decisions of other drivers from rich perceptual information. Towards these capabilities, we present a probabilistic forecasting model of future interactions between a variable number of agents. We perform both standard forecasting and the novel task of conditional forecasting, which reasons about how all agents will likely respond to the goal of a controlled agent (here, the AV). We train models on real and simulated data to forecast vehicle trajectories given past positions and LIDAR. Our evaluation shows that our model is substantially more accurate in multi-agent driving scenarios compared to existing state-of-the-art. Beyond its general ability to perform conditional forecasting queries, we show that our model's predictions of all agents improve when conditioned on knowledge of the AV's goal, further illustrating its capability to model agent interactions.

Nicholas Rhinehart, Rowan McAllister, Kris Kitani, Sergey Levine
arXiv:1905.01296 · cs.CV, cs.AI, cs.LG, cs.RO, stat.ML · submitted May 3, 2019 · updated Sep 30, 2019
abstract · pdf · html · To appear at the IEEE International Conference on Computer Vision (ICCV 2019). Website: https://sites.google.com/view/precog

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