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Underspecification Presents Challenge for Credibility in Modern Machine Learning (arxiv.org)
3 points by headalgorithm on Nov 21, 2020 | hide | past | pdf | discuss on HN

In plain words: Machine-learning training can produce many different models that score equally well on held-out data from the same setting, so picking one arbitrarily hides big differences. Across vision, medical, language, and genetic tasks, these equally scoring models often behaved very differently in real-world use.

Abstract · Underspecification Presents Challenges for Credibility in Modern Machine Learning

ML models often exhibit unexpectedly poor behavior when they are deployed in real-world domains. We identify underspecification as a key reason for these failures. An ML pipeline is underspecified when it can return many predictors with equivalently strong held-out performance in the training domain. Underspecification is common in modern ML pipelines, such as those based on deep learning. Predictors returned by underspecified pipelines are often treated as equivalent based on their training domain performance, but we show here that such predictors can behave very differently in deployment domains. This ambiguity can lead to instability and poor model behavior in practice, and is a distinct failure mode from previously identified issues arising from structural mismatch between training and deployment domains. We show that this problem appears in a wide variety of practical ML pipelines, using examples from computer vision, medical imaging, natural language processing, clinical risk prediction based on electronic health records, and medical genomics. Our results show the need to explicitly account for underspecification in modeling pipelines that are intended for real-world deployment in any domain.

Alexander D'Amour, Katherine Heller, Dan Moldovan, Ben Adlam, Babak Alipanahi, Alex Beutel, Christina Chen, Jonathan Deaton, Jacob Eisenstein, Matthew D. Hoffman, Farhad Hormozdiari, Neil Houlsby, et al.
arXiv:2011.03395 · cs.LG, stat.ML · submitted Nov 6, 2020 · updated Nov 24, 2020
abstract · pdf · html · Updates: Updated statistical analysis in Section 6; Additional citations

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