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MetNet: A Neural Weather Model for Precipitation Forecasting (2020) (arxiv.org)
2 points by jesprenj on Feb 13, 2022 | hide | past | pdf | discuss on HN

In plain words: MetNet reads radar and satellite pictures of a wide area and, using attention to weigh distant spots, predicts rain chances at 1-kilometer detail up to eight hours ahead in seconds. It beat physics-based weather simulations out to seven to eight hours over the US.

Abstract · MetNet: A Neural Weather Model for Precipitation Forecasting

Weather forecasting is a long standing scientific challenge with direct social and economic impact. The task is suitable for deep neural networks due to vast amounts of continuously collected data and a rich spatial and temporal structure that presents long range dependencies. We introduce MetNet, a neural network that forecasts precipitation up to 8 hours into the future at the high spatial resolution of 1 km$^2$ and at the temporal resolution of 2 minutes with a latency in the order of seconds. MetNet takes as input radar and satellite data and forecast lead time and produces a probabilistic precipitation map. The architecture uses axial self-attention to aggregate the global context from a large input patch corresponding to a million square kilometers. We evaluate the performance of MetNet at various precipitation thresholds and find that MetNet outperforms Numerical Weather Prediction at forecasts of up to 7 to 8 hours on the scale of the continental United States.

Casper Kaae Sønderby, Lasse Espeholt, Jonathan Heek, Mostafa Dehghani, Avital Oliver, Tim Salimans, Shreya Agrawal, Jason Hickey, Nal Kalchbrenner
arXiv:2003.12140 · cs.LG, physics.ao-ph, stat.ML · submitted Mar 24, 2020 · updated Mar 30, 2020
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