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Can large language models reason about medical questions? (arxiv.org)
2 points by caprock on Dec 23, 2022 | hide | past | pdf | 1 comment on HN

In plain words: They tested AI chat models on hard medical exam questions, using step-by-step answers, worked examples, and paper lookups, with doctors judging the reasoning. The best closed model passed all three question sets (60.2% on the USMLE-style one), and an open model reached 62.5% there.

Abstract

Although large language models (LLMs) often produce impressive outputs, it remains unclear how they perform in real-world scenarios requiring strong reasoning skills and expert domain knowledge. We set out to investigate whether close- and open-source models (GPT-3.5, LLama-2, etc.) can be applied to answer and reason about difficult real-world-based questions. We focus on three popular medical benchmarks (MedQA-USMLE, MedMCQA, and PubMedQA) and multiple prompting scenarios: Chain-of-Thought (CoT, think step-by-step), few-shot and retrieval augmentation. Based on an expert annotation of the generated CoTs, we found that InstructGPT can often read, reason and recall expert knowledge. Last, by leveraging advances in prompt engineering (few-shot and ensemble methods), we demonstrated that GPT-3.5 not only yields calibrated predictive distributions, but also reaches the passing score on three datasets: MedQA-USMLE 60.2%, MedMCQA 62.7% and PubMedQA 78.2%. Open-source models are closing the gap: Llama-2 70B also passed the MedQA-USMLE with 62.5% accuracy.

Valentin Liévin, Christoffer Egeberg Hother, Andreas Geert Motzfeldt, Ole Winther
arXiv:2207.08143 · cs.CL, cs.AI, cs.LG · submitted Jul 17, 2022 · updated Dec 24, 2023
abstract · pdf · html · 37 pages, 23 figures. v1: results using InstructGPT, v2.0: added the Codex experiments, v2.1: added the missing test MedMCQA results for Codex 5-shot CoT and using k=100 samples, v3.0: added results for open source models -- ready for publication (final version)

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