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Crypto trading using reinforcement learning (arxiv.org)
2 points by yanglet on Jan 1, 2023 | hide | past | pdf | 3 comments on HN

In plain words: A statistical test estimates how likely a trading bot's profits come from overfitting; bots that fail it are dropped. On 10 cryptocurrencies during a 2022 stretch with two crashes, the survivors earned higher returns than the more overfitted bots, an equal-weight mix, and the market index.

Abstract · Deep Reinforcement Learning for Cryptocurrency Trading: Practical Approach to Address Backtest Overfitting

Designing profitable and reliable trading strategies is challenging in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market. Existing works applied deep reinforcement learning methods and optimistically reported increased profits in backtesting, which may suffer from the false positive issue due to overfitting. In this paper, we propose a practical approach to address backtest overfitting for cryptocurrency trading using deep reinforcement learning. First, we formulate the detection of backtest overfitting as a hypothesis test. Then, we train the DRL agents, estimate the probability of overfitting, and reject the overfitted agents, increasing the chance of good trading performance. Finally, on 10 cryptocurrencies over a testing period from 05/01/2022 to 06/27/2022 (during which the crypto market crashed two times), we show that the less overfitted deep reinforcement learning agents have a higher return than that of more overfitted agents, an equal weight strategy, and the S&P DBM Index (market benchmark), offering confidence in possible deployment to a real market.

Berend Jelmer Dirk Gort, Xiao-Yang Liu, Xinghang Sun, Jiechao Gao, Shuaiyu Chen, Christina Dan Wang
arXiv:2209.05559 · q-fin.ST, cs.AI, cs.LG · submitted Sep 12, 2022 · updated Jan 31, 2023
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Deep Reinforcement Learning for Cryptocurrency Trading: Practical Approach to Address Backtest Overfitting
The page is very complex to understand.
The first author wrote several blogs about crypto trading using rl, available here: https://github.com/AI4Finance-Foundation/Blogs