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EarthPT: A foundation model for Earth Observation (arxiv.org)
1 point by Smith42 on Sep 15, 2023 | hide | past | pdf | discuss on HN

In plain words: A large AI trained on sequences of satellite pixels learns to predict how each spot's reflected light will change months ahead. Its vegetation-index forecasts were typically off by about 0.05 over five months, beating simple models that average past yearly cycles.

Abstract · EarthPT: a time series foundation model for Earth Observation

We introduce EarthPT -- an Earth Observation (EO) pretrained transformer. EarthPT is a 700 million parameter decoding transformer foundation model trained in an autoregressive self-supervised manner and developed specifically with EO use-cases in mind. We demonstrate that EarthPT is an effective forecaster that can accurately predict future pixel-level surface reflectances across the 400-2300 nm range well into the future. For example, forecasts of the evolution of the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) have a typical error of approximately 0.05 (over a natural range of -1 -> 1) at the pixel level over a five month test set horizon, out-performing simple phase-folded models based on historical averaging. We also demonstrate that embeddings learnt by EarthPT hold semantically meaningful information and could be exploited for downstream tasks such as highly granular, dynamic land use classification. Excitingly, we note that the abundance of EO data provides us with -- in theory -- quadrillions of training tokens. Therefore, if we assume that EarthPT follows neural scaling laws akin to those derived for Large Language Models (LLMs), there is currently no data-imposed limit to scaling EarthPT and other similar `Large Observation Models.'

Michael J. Smith, Luke Fleming, James E. Geach
arXiv:2309.07207 · cs.LG, physics.geo-ph · submitted Sep 13, 2023 · updated Jan 11, 2024
abstract · pdf · html · 7 pages, 4 figures, accepted to NeurIPS CCAI workshop at https://www.climatechange.ai/papers/neurips2023/2 . Code available at https://github.com/aspiaspace/EarthPT

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