In plain words: It turns future paths into word-like tokens and predicts them like text, generating everyone's paths together in one pass instead of one at a time and scoring how they interact. It ranked first in a leading public contest for predicting how cars move together.
Abstract
Reliable forecasting of the future behavior of road agents is a critical component to safe planning in autonomous vehicles. Here, we represent continuous trajectories as sequences of discrete motion tokens and cast multi-agent motion prediction as a language modeling task over this domain. Our model, MotionLM, provides several advantages: First, it does not require anchors or explicit latent variable optimization to learn multimodal distributions. Instead, we leverage a single standard language modeling objective, maximizing the average log probability over sequence tokens. Second, our approach bypasses post-hoc interaction heuristics where individual agent trajectory generation is conducted prior to interactive scoring. Instead, MotionLM produces joint distributions over interactive agent futures in a single autoregressive decoding process. In addition, the model's sequential factorization enables temporally causal conditional rollouts. The proposed approach establishes new state-of-the-art performance for multi-agent motion prediction on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset, ranking 1st on the interactive challenge leaderboard.
Ari Seff, Brian Cera, Dian Chen, Mason Ng, Aurick Zhou, Nigamaa Nayakanti, Khaled S. Refaat, Rami Al-Rfou, Benjamin Sapp
arXiv:2309.16534 · cs.CV, cs.AI, cs.LG, cs.RO · submitted Sep 28, 2023
abstract · pdf · html · To appear at the International Conference on Computer Vision (ICCV) 2023