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Current Time Series Anomaly Detection Benchmarks Are Flawed (arxiv.org)
2 points by bsoles on Nov 29, 2023 | hide | past | pdf | 5 comments on HN

In plain words: They checked the popular anomaly-detection benchmark datasets example by example and found most have one of four flaws. That makes past algorithm rankings unreliable, so they released a cleaner archive for fair comparisons.

Abstract · Current Time Series Anomaly Detection Benchmarks are Flawed and are Creating the Illusion of Progress

Time series anomaly detection has been a perennially important topic in data science, with papers dating back to the 1950s. However, in recent years there has been an explosion of interest in this topic, much of it driven by the success of deep learning in other domains and for other time series tasks. Most of these papers test on one or more of a handful of popular benchmark datasets, created by Yahoo, Numenta, NASA, etc. In this work we make a surprising claim. The majority of the individual exemplars in these datasets suffer from one or more of four flaws. Because of these four flaws, we believe that many published comparisons of anomaly detection algorithms may be unreliable, and more importantly, much of the apparent progress in recent years may be illusionary. In addition to demonstrating these claims, with this paper we introduce the UCR Time Series Anomaly Archive. We believe that this resource will perform a similar role as the UCR Time Series Classification Archive, by providing the community with a benchmark that allows meaningful comparisons between approaches and a meaningful gauge of overall progress.

Renjie Wu, Eamonn J. Keogh
arXiv:2009.13807 · cs.LG, stat.ML · submitted Sep 29, 2020 · updated Sep 3, 2022
abstract · pdf · Full paper accepted by IEEE TKDE, extended abstract accepted by IEEE ICDE 2022

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This article is consistent with my recent experience with academics being in a frenzy to produce papers riding the AI/ML hype, yet producing bunch of practically useless papers.

The following quote from the article is striking: "Qiu et al. introduce a “novel anomaly detector for time-series KPIs based on supervised deep-learning models with convolution and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks, and a variational auto-encoder (VAE) oversampling model.” This description sounds like it has many “moving parts”, and indeed, the dozen or so explicitly listed parameters include: convolution filter, activation, kernel size, strides, padding, LSTM input size, dense input size, softmax loss function, window size, learning rate and batch size. All of this is to demonstrate “accuracy exceeding 0.90.” However, as we will show, much of the results of this complex approach can be duplicated with a single line of code and a few minutes of effort."

> This article is consistent with my recent experience with academics being a frenzy to produce papers riding the AI/ML hype, yet producing bunch of practically useless papers.

Much of CS is like this; useless papers with incremental improvements at best. Without having read the paper, I'd guess plain ARIMA etc. do well enough in univariate forecasts.

Thanks for your kind words (I am one of the authors) For those interested, there is an expanded review/critique of datasets here [a]

There is also a video here [b]

[a] https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/cwduv5idkwx9ci328nfpy/Problem...

[b] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vg1p3DouX8w&

I am currently reading your article with great interest as I am about to embark on implementing time series anomaly detection algorithm(s) for predictive maintenance applications. I would like to avoid unnecessarily complex algorithms that are unlikely provide real, practical benefits.
Please let me know if I can help.

A paper published today finds an anomaly in an "InternalBleeding" dataset, after setting eighteen parameters [a].

Could we find the anomaly with a completely parameter-free algorithm? As the figure below shows, the answer is YES, if you use MADRID [b].

One line of code >>MADRID(UCRAnomalyInternalBleeding)

So Yes, simple is better.

[a] Learning Rate, Dropout Rate, Dim Feedforward, Batch Size, Encoder Layers, Decoder Layers, Activation Func, Time Warping, Time Masking, Gaussian Noise, Linear Embedding, Phase Type, Self Conditioning, Layer Norm, Pos. Enc. Type, FFN Layers, Window Size.

[b] https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/hd9gt0xs8v8mrsx3upwd3/ICDM23_...