I bet a lot of these experiments would already solvable by putting the LLM in a simple loop with some helper prompts that make it restructure and validate its answers, form theories and get to explore multiple lines of thought.

If an LLM would be able to do that in a single prompt, without a loop (so the LLM always answers in a predictable amount of time), then it would mean its entire reasoning structure is repeated horizontally through the layers of its architecture. That would be both limiting (i.e. limit the depth of the reasoning to the width of the network) and very expensive to train.

But if a human is allowed time and internal reasoning iterations, so should the LLM when determining if it has deep insight. Right now we're simply observing input -> output of LLMs, the equivalent of snap answers from a human. But nothing says it couldn't instead be an input -> extensive internal dialogue, maybe even between multiple expert models for seconds, minutes or hours, that are not at all visible to the prompter -> final insightful answer. Maybe future LLMs will say, "let me get back to you on that".

From a computer science point of view: a single prompt/response cycle from a LLM is equivalent to a pure function; the answer is a function of the prompt and the model weights and is fundamentally reducible to solving a big math equation (in which each model parameter is a term.)

It seems almost self evident that "reasoning" worthy of the name would involve some sort of iterative/recursive search process, invoking the model and storing/reflecting/improving on answers methodically.

There's been a lot of movement in this direction with tree-of-thought/chain-of-thought/graph-of-thought prompting, and I would bet that if/when we get AGI, it's a result of getting the right recursive prompting pattern + retrieval patterns + ensemble models figured out, not just making ever-more-powerful transformer models (thought that would certainly play a role too.)

The LLM isn't the whole brain. Just the area responsible for language and cultural memory.

“You learn best from your mistakes” comes to mind here.

And not just shallow feedback loops but bigger, more profound ones eg “I didn’t go to work for a month and so I was fired and and now I have no money and it will now be hard to be hired again”.

If the shim was just another AI, then how do you align that AI? Who watches the watchers? But if it was a deterministic algorithm it would probably fail for the same reasons that algorithmic AI never went anywhere.

Or we could just give them three laws

Otherwise the laws will have to be implemented as weights or during training so the model explicitly knows the laws and would never even be capable of doing something against them.

I suppose the real wisdom there is that humans are doomed to fail at alignment if we create sentience and expect it only to serve us.

spoilers warning:

Is that basically the plot to westworld?

The great part is with clear enough directions it also knows how to evaluate whether its done or not.

No, it's the equivalent of putting a gun to someone's head and asking them "what are my intentions?" Which is readily available to any being with a theory of mind.

Because, obviously, training data probably includes a decent amount of motivation breakdowns as a function of coercion.

It doesn’t know why, but it knows what to say.

Put gun to persons ahead.

Ask them to do a division.

Then screaming at them "HOW DID YOU DO THAT, TELL ME NOW, OR YOU'RE TOAST".

Even most humans would splutter and not be able to answer.

A human also can't explain how their neurons calculated a division, or anything else, or 'intention', even if a gun is pointed at them.

So, why is that a fault of AI if it can't explain how itself is working? It is not a requirement for AGI.

Are they faking it? Will they murder me? Are they just trying to scare me?

I don't understand the point you're trying to make.

Or am I misunderstanding something about that technique?

I guess from that perspective it might make sense to test if such a thing is already happening in current LLM's and my dismissive attitude stems from the fact that I've played with them enough to know that they currently don't.

We can also potentially add longer term memory - summarise the context, and judge which parts are important and stuff them in a vector store, and now and again swap in similar pieces of past context.

But of course it's not either or - better prompting to get the LLMs to do better from the start doesn't compete with then feeding that into an external loop as well.

Of course, yes, we do know one thing that's missing in LLMs, which is "loop and helpers" like you describe. Which I'm sure many people are currently hacking at - one way being for the LLM to talk to itself.

But as for "a theory of mind", if enough writings served as input, then LLMs do have plenty of that.

Another question is whether LLMs are raised to behave like humans (which might be where they most NEED some theory of mind). Of course not. The ones we know most about are only question answerers. The theory of mind they might have (that is not negated by the lack of loop and internal deliberation) may be overwhelmed by the pre- and post-processing: "no sex, no murder plots, talk to the human like they are 5, bla bla bla". And yet you can ask things like "Tell it like you are speaking to 5 year olds who want to have a fun time". Some theory of mind makes it through.

While this is a simple example, the concept extrapolates to more complex issues as we develop cognitively and emotionally. Not only is theory of mind about recognizing that your thoughts and feelings are separate and distinct, but also being able to project your understanding into others to predict how they might be thinking and feeling in their own separate circumstance. This is the fundamental basis of empathy, or being able to predict and understand how others around you may be feeling given their unique current circumstances even if they are different from your own.

LLMs have not demonstrated any of the above understanding. Again, I'm sure they could generate a definition for it, and on any given prompt they could probably even generate some generic-ish text that could pose as empathy, but so can a horoscope. But there is not the deep, continuous comprehension of the user as a separate thinking and feeling agent that is fundamental to the idea of theory of mind.

After that, the entire field of AI is about making bits and register transfers - a written form of knowledge - into something indistinguishable from the wet version. Making a priori and irreconcilably different "academic understanding" and "functional, meaningful understanding" is going to be a problem.

These responses are logically the same as "No You".

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00100...

I get frustrated often when people argue "well, it isn't really intelligent" and then give examples that are clearly dependent on our brain's chemical state and our bodies' existence in-the-physical-world.

I get the feeling that when/if we are all enslaved by a super-intelligent AI that we do not understand its motives, we will still argue that it is not intelligent because it doesn't get hungry and it can't prove to us that it has Qualia.

This paper argues that gpts are bad at understanding human risk/reward functions, which seems like a much more explicit way to talk about this, and also casts it in a way that could help reframe the debate about how human evolution and our physical beings might be significantly responsible for the structure of our rational minds.

It doesn't appear until the early 20th century, in the shadow of compulsory education and the challenges it presented, first as a technical label for attempts to sort students -- and later soldiers -- into the tracks in which they're most likely to succeed, and then being haphazardly asserted (but not scientifically evidenced) as some general measure of mental aptitude.

At that point it shifts from something qualitative (which mental tasks might someone be good at) to something quantitative (how much more might one personal excel at all mental tasks than another), and the burgeoning field of modern American psychology goes "Aha! A quantitative measure! Here's our meal ticket to being recognized as a science instead of those quacks from Vienna", with far too much at stake to either question the many assumptions at play or the inconsistent history of usage.

Momentum takes hold and the public takes the word into its everyday vernacular, even while it's still not a clear and sound concept in its technical domain. [Most of this is history is more academically covered in Danziger's 1987 "Naming the Mind" which is excellent, and critical foundational reading to contextualize recent hot discussions in AI]

The way you're using it when you worry about "super-intelligence" is in the sense of intelligence being some universal, unbounded, quantitative independent variable along the lines of "the more intelligent something is, the more cunningly it can pursue some rationalized goal" -- some master strategist.

That's fine, and you're not alone in that, but there's not really any sound scientific groundwork to establish that there exists some quality of the world that scales like that. You're fear, and what you try to distinguish conceptually from what the paper addresses, is an inductive leap made from highly unstable ground. It's in the same invented, purely abstract idea-space of "omnipotence" or "omniscience" where one takes a practical idea like "power to influence" or "ability to know fact" and inductively draws a line from these practical senses towards some abstract infinite/incomprehensible version of that thing. But that inductive leap a Platonic logician's parlor trick and ends up raising all kinds of abstract paradoxes, as well countless physical impracticalities about how such things could exist.

So a lot of people (academic and lay) just aren't with you in taking that framing of intelligence very seriously. For many, an "super-intelligent" software whose "motives" we don't understand is just a program that produces incorrect outputs and ought to be debugged or retired, and the more interesting questions around machine "intelligence" are practical ones like "what tasks are these programs well-suited for". Here, the authors point out that the current batch of programs are not good at tasks that benefit from a theory of mind.

Knowing the answer to that kind of question reaches back to the earliest and least disputable sense of the word, where we saw that some new students and soldiers excelled at certain tasks and struggled with others, and wanted to understand how best to educated/assign them. And likewise, as we look at these tools, the pressing question for engineers and businesses is "what are they good for and what are they not good for" rather than the fantastical "what if we make a broken program and it wants to kill everyone and we don't notice and forget to shut it off"

It wouldn't have to want to kill everyone. As long as it doesn't want to not kill everyone, the side effects of it getting what it wants could be catastrophic.

> and we don't notice

How well do we understand what's going on inside ChatGPT? How well will we understand the next?

> and forget to shut it off

Earlier I would have argued that sufficiently advanced AI could prevent itself from being shut off via Things You Didn't Expect, and would instrumentally want to preserve its existence. But these days, people are giving ChatGPT not just internet access but even actively handing it control over various processes. At this rate, the first superhuman AI will face not an impermeable box but a million conveniently labeled levers!

There's a good argument along these lines that I keep reposting when someone asks if we can't just shut the AI off. "All you gotta do is push a button, sir?"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ld-AKg9-xpM&t=30s

I'm not sure what you mean here, since the word dates back to the late 14th century with roughly the same meaning as now. Perhaps you're thinking of "intelligence quotient"?

https://www.etymonline.com/word/intelligence

Where you say "roughly the same meaning as now" you seem to mean that "the highest faculty of the mind, capacity for comprehending general truths;" is how we think of intelligence now, but the meanings of "mind", "truth" "comprehending" and "faculties of mind" have all had their own radical shifts over the last 600 years. That quoted phrase conveys an entirely different perspective and set of assumptions/implications in the context of its time, and is not at all analogous to how we read it today.

Raymond Williams' "Keywords" collects a very interesting and accessible collection of examples of this phenomenon, although it focuses more on the language of politics and society more than the language of psychology.

The modern use of intelligence, and the conceptual constellation it represents, is essentially isolated from what's described in that article, but it's re-introduction in modern psychology does borrow from its prior existence in the lexicon.

I appreciate the highlighting of the term intelligence being ill-defined. Moreover, it's certainly true that "AI safety analysts" takes intelligence as a sort magic wand term and this seems to drive their arguments.

All that said, since both computers and human brains are material artifacts, it doesn't seem impossible to create a device that combines their properties. It seems plausible that such a thing could have a variety of dangers.

For many, an "super-intelligent" software whose "motives" we don't understand is just a program that produces incorrect outputs and ought to be debugged or retired, and the more interesting questions around machine "intelligence" are practical ones like "what tasks are these programs well-suited for".

We saw early Bing Chat behave, not in ways we couldn't understand but like a deranged and vengeful human. Certainly, it was merely simulating human behavior but if today's methods produce artifacts that unselectively amplify human behaviors, it's not hard to imagine problems appearing.

We can hope that there's a fundamental difference between programs that simulate human language and programs able to plan and carry out long term goals (and carrying out long term goals is something people do so there's no good reason some kind of program couldn't do that).

I think you're right that particular weirdness of the "doomers" makes some other portion of the population dismiss concerns. But that isn't an argument that the doom isn't possible - it should be an argument to clarify how we talk of computation and human capacities (see, I don't to say "intelligence" unless I want to).

>Here, the authors point out that the current batch of programs are not good at tasks that benefit from a theory of mind.

Not good at tasks that benefit from a theory of mind extracted from visual data.

Yes theory of mind can be demonstrated. Make up whatever bespoke story you can with characters having varying levels if intention and knowledge. Then query GPT-4 about the state of the characters.

What i'm saying is that the vision component introduces another point of error, is it a lack of theory of mind ? or being yet unable to extract the necessary features from visual data ? They rapidly learn to but Blind people who could recognize squares by feel do not have the ability to recognize squares by sight upon gaining vision. https://www.projectprakash.org/_files/ugd/2af8ef_5a0c6250cc3...

I'm just saying that I don't think there's any point on that line where we will be comfortable admitting that the machine is "intelligent" or "conscious" or "AGI," or whatever, and that I appreciate attempts to quantify (or at least qualify) what we MEAN when we say that, rather than just goalpost-moving.

We (mostly) don't want unaligned A(G|S)I. The outcomes of that could be extenstential.

But it's skeptical of the other sense alignment, where a potential Master Strategist needs to be trained or crippled before it outsmarts us. It sees that perspective as comparable to logicians debating whether we might live in the domain of a benevolent or evil omnipotence: "if an ant is more powerful than a rock, and I'm more powerful than an ant, then perhaps there is something so powerful that it encompasses all opportunities to influence the universe including the power to hide itself from me." -- which comes from taking a concrete measure, assuming that it's an independent variable, and then inductively extending it to an infinite or otherwise unevidenced scale. This technique is undisprovable and so it's easy for "rational" people to mine work from it for a very long time, but history and analysis give room for skeptics to be like "WTF you going on about; let's have some tea"

When the skeptic is correct. The problem with skeptics is when incorrectness is not terminal, they can't hear you over the sound of pushing the goal posts farther to give a reasonable rebuttal for their originally incorrect statements.

A big part of the problem is that "is" has a wide variety of inconsistent meanings, and that this fact is sub-perceptual, and that it is culturally very inappropriate to comment on aspects of our culture like this, preventing knowledge of the problem from spreading.

/u/Swatcoder makes essentially the same point but in much more detail, though regarding less important words.

It's not just you. It hit me almost a year ago, when I realized my then 3.5yo daughter has a noticeable context window of about 30 seconds - whenever she went on her random rant/story, anything she didn't repeat within 30 seconds would permanently fall out of the story and never be mentioned again.

It also made me realize why small kids talk so repetitively - what they don't repeat they soon forget, and what they feel like repeating remains, so over the course of couple minutes, their story kind of knots itself in a loop, being mostly made of the thoughts they feel compelled to carry forward.

In those texts, emotional and mental states are almost always referred to with analogs to physical sensation. 'Anger' is the heating of your head, 'fear' is the thudding of your heart. He claims that at the time, there wasn't a vocabulary that expressed abstract mental states, and so the distinction between the mind and body was not clear-cut. Then, over time, specialized terms to represent those states were invented, passed into common usage, which enabled an ability to introspect that didn't exist before.

(All examples are made up, I read it more than 20 years ago. But it made an impression.)

I would claim that most people use intuition/assumptions rather than internal chain-of-thought, when communicating, meaning they will present that simplified concept without second thought, leading to the same behavior as the toddler. It's actually trivial to find someone that doesn't use assumptions, because they take a moment to respond, using an internal chain-of-thought type consideration to give a careful answer. I would even claim that a fast response is seen as more valuable than a slow one, with a moment of silence for a response being an indication of incompetence. I know I've seen it, where some expert takes a moment to consider/compress, and people get frustrated/second guess them.

The problem is consciousness is a vocabulary word that establishes a hard boundary where such a boundary doesn't exit. The language makes you think either something is conscious or it is not when the reality is that these two concepts are actually extreme endpoints on a gradient.

The vocabulary makes the concept seem binary and makes it seem more profound then it actually is.

Thus we have no problem identifying things at the extreme. A rock is not conscious. That's obvious. A human IS conscious, that's also obvious. But only because these two objects are defined at the extremes of this gradient.

For something fuzzy like chatGPT, we get confused. We think the problem is profound, but in actuality it's just poorly defined vocabulary. The word consciousness, again, assumes the world is binary that something is either/or, but, again, the reality is a gradient.

When we have debates about whether something is "conscious" or not we are just arguing about where the line of demarcation is drawn along the gradient. Does it need a body to be conscious? Does it need to be able to do math? Where you draw this line is just a definition of vocabulary. So arguments about whether LLMs are conscious are arguments about vocabulary.

We as humans are biased and we blindly allow the vocabulary to mold our thinking. Is chatGPT conscious? It's a loaded question based on a world view manipulated by the vocabulary. It doesn't even matter. That boundary is fuzzy, and any vocab attempting to describe this gradient is just arbitrary.

But hear me out. chatGPT and DALL-E is NOT hype. Why? Because along that gradient it's leaps and bounds further than anything we had just even a decade ago. It's the closest we ever been to the extreme endpoint. Whichever side you are on in the great debate both sides can very much agree with this logic.

But it's not obvious at all. It may possess consciousness in a way we can't relate to or communicate with.

This is the whole problem with consciousness and has been discussed by philosophers for centuries. We each appear to be conscious but can't be certain anything else is or isn't.

My argument is saying that the problem is a sham. An illusion. The problem doesn't even exist. Read my whole write up.

Perhaps consciousness is binary and the rock is just as conscious as a human. We don't know. But consciousness != intelligence, and it's reasonable to assume humans are more intelligent than rocks of course, but we can't say anything about each one's level of consciousness.

If we made up a word and we don't know what it means that means we "chose" not to know what it means. We made up the fact that we don't know. Ultimately all words in the english language are made up by humans.

The concept of consciousness itself doesn't exist. It exists because we made up a word for it. And the concept seems fuzzy because the word was made up and a fuzzy definition for it was chosen.

When you debate what "consciousness" is you are debating the definition of the word. This is not profound. The word is made up, the definition is arbitrarily chosen. You are debating a vocabulary problem what arbitrary definition should be attached to what arbitrary word. You are attempting to refine the fuzzy boundaries of a definition that we as humans already made fuzzy by our own choice.

Take a car and a boat. If I made some vehicle that can both drive on the road and sail on the water, is it a car or a boat? What you're not seeing is that it doesn't matter. It's just a vehicle, but the words "car" and "boat" lock you into this delusional debate that's attempting to classify the car-boat as one or the other. Do you understand? The concept of a car and a boat is poorly defined language influencing the way you think. Whether the vehicle is a car or a boat is meaningless. Same with consciousness.

If you still don't get it. How about this. I'll make up a new concept called Flurmo. Flurmo is something that is 30-40% a car and 60-70% a boat. Now when you debate whether the vehicle is a car or a boat you have to consider whether it's a flurmo as well. Car, boat or flurmo? It's easy to see how flurmo is made up, it's harder to see why car and boat are the SAME thing, they are also words that are made up. And so is consciousness. Consciousness is flurmo.

You stopped reading, because you made a false assumption. You then continued reading on my prompt and you came out with a conclusion based off of you misunderstanding the point. Hopefully you get what I'm saying now.

A rose, beauty. All are concepts. I'm sorry that your blinded by illusion of it all.

Don't answer that question. It's rhetorical. A rational discussion. can't be had with someone who is inconsistent with the statements he makes or someone who is deliberately trolling. I suspect you are the later.

Lots of software engineers have spent their lives reading sci-fi that features AGI, and they're excited by/lost in that fantasy.

It's interesting to see that in people who often view themselves as hyper-rational.

^^^^^ literally a plot ripped from the pages of science fiction used to reason about the real world.

> And if you think that's just sci-fi I think you'll get a surprise at some point during your life.

Such faith that fantasy can be made real. Wake me up when you have my hyperdrive ready.

I find that hard to believe. Ever watch Terminator?

But even if true, that science-fictional plot is so pervasive it would be easy to pick up from the millions who have the software engineer's blurry line between fantasy and reality.

> It's just logical really.

OK, then. You're a GI, go off and build an army of better yous and take over the world.

> I find that hard to believe. Ever watched Terminator?

Terminator has fuck all to do with recursive self-improvement. Don't confuse people who grew up on sci-fi with people who casually went to see Terminator or some other pop-culture artifact featuring some kind of "AI".

> OK, then. You're a GI, go off and build an army of better yous and take over the world.

What do you think the drama with eugenics, genetic engineering and designer babies is around? It's literally humans trying to make better humans in the only way that is available - reproduction.

AI made in silica would be more malleable, easier and cheaper to replicate. Self-improving software isn't even a fantasy; it exists in many forms - though it's far from open-ended like a self-improving GI would be.

Judging reality by how it appears is a bad strategy, this should be common knowledge by now.

What's concerning to me is that I suspect LLM's will be able to learn and remember thousands of basic facts like this, and ~reason on top of them. Perhaps they won't figure this out on their own, but what if all it takes is one individual to point them in this direction? I bet there are numerous people who know much more about this than me working for our various three letter agencies.

>> I find that hard to believe. Ever watched Terminator?

> Terminator has fuck all to do with recursive self-improvement. Don't confuse people who grew up on sci-fi with people who casually went to see Terminator or some other pop-culture artifact featuring some kind of "AI".

You're not following the thread. The future timeline in Terminator does involve something like an AI making "a billion more robots [to] take over the world." The popularity of that and similar sci-fi makes that claim that someone has never encountered it hard to believe.

> What do you think the drama with eugenics, genetic engineering and designer babies is around?

So how has that been going? Those things should also probably be labeled "science fiction."

> AI made in silica would be more malleable, easier and cheaper to replicate. Self-improving software isn't even a fantasy; it exists in many forms - though it's far from open-ended like a self-improving GI would be.

Fantasies based on squishy assumptions. How do you know it would have an easier job optimizing itself than humans have? How do you know there isn't some fundamental contradiction in the concept of "superintelligence" that these fantasies are based on? Or even just some practical resource limits that makes the fantasy impossible?

Yes. That's distinctly different from Skynet iterating on itself a billion times to make itself smarter, which AFAIK (I'm not up to date with full Terminatorverse, but then, most people aren't either), isn't something that happened in that story.

> The popularity of that and similar sci-fi makes that claim that someone has never encountered it hard to believe.

Again, there's very little in mass-market sci-fi of what we're discussing here. And most people, including many in tech, have a hard time wrapping their heads around the idea of a feedback loop, so no, I don't think it's something readily available from mass-market sci-fi.

(But the more niche, better thought-out works, will teach you feedback loops, and this is just one of the ways recursive self-improvement becomes an obvious idea.)

> So how has that been going? Those things should probably be labeled "science fiction."

Eugenics? We had to ban it and create such a strong cultural (and legal) repulsive field around it, that it impedes biotech and medical research.

Designer babies? Weren't attempts made in China recently? And in the West, we're already correcting congenital defects, so all in all, it's less "science fiction", and more "science someone is going to apply soon, if they haven't already".

> How do you know it would have an easier job optimizing itself than humans have?

Because it was created by us, using processes and media that are strongly optimized for malleability. Software, algorithms, digital data, optimization models. All well-defined (and comprehensible to an AGI, by definition) - unlike our own minds, which were not made by us but by a dumb, random process, and that the brains are made of stupidly complex nanotech instead of simple transistors is not helping.

Also because the kind of models we're now worried about gain capability through an optimization process that's open-ended, and limited only by availability of training data and compute. So if e.g. a successor of GPT-4 were to become AGI, it would be set up for recursive self-improvement from day one.

> How do you know there isn't some fundamental contradiction in the concept of "superintelligence" that these fantasies are based on? Or even just some practical resource limits that makes the fantasy impossible?

Maybe, but what makes you think this is the case? We know of some fundamental limits to compute, but we're very, very far from hitting them. Otherwise, I don't know of anything that would put a cap on intelligence at around human level. Remember: by the very nature of evolution, we're the dumbest possible beings capable of learning and building a technological civilization. There may be better brain designs than ours, but ours "took off", and we took over the world.

Actually thinking about it I wouldn't rule out Musk/Tesla going for the world takeover thing;)

Why the fuck not? You literally have all the code to manufacture a person.

I think a much more realistic outcome is that you put it into a fancier robot body that can go outside, and by the end of the week it's scrap in a homeless camp chop shop

It's perhaps because they are rational enough to realize, thanks to the same knowledge/skill that put them on the software engineer careers, that AGI isn't a fantasy but a possibility and a potentially very big deal.

Because you have to solve 10,000 different problems. And a huge number of those problems are going to have significant overlap, but sharing lessons between them is going to be difficult unless you have a generalized algorithm.

Hence AGI is the trillion dollar question.

Also there is the general hubris in all this to only look at the new and shiny, I remember when there was that pizza robot (some multi-dimension axis hand thing) that cost whatever in building and research, when the costco pizza "robot" is pretty darn good, but doesn't sell as "futuristic/cool" because its a spigot on a servo.

The real impacts will come when they are properly integrated into the current computational fabric, which everyone is racing to do as we write this.

Hinton is one of these individuals and with no definition of what intelligence is it is an understandable of dogmatic position.

This whole problem of not being able to define what intelligence is pretty much allows us all to pick and choose.

In my mind BPP is the complexity class solvable by ANNs and it is a safe and educated guess that most likely BPP=P.

BPP being one of the largest practical complexity classes makes work in this area valuable.

But due to many reasons that I won't enumerate again AGI simply isn't possible and requires a dogmatic position to believe in for people who have even a basic understanding of how they work and the limits from the work of Gödel etc...

But many of the top scientists in history have been believers of numerology etc...

Associating math with LLMs is a useful too to avoid wasted effort by those who don't believe AGI is close, but it won't convince those who are true believers.

LLM's are very useful for searching very large dimensional spaces and for those problems that are ergotic with the Markov property they can find real answers.

But for most of what is popular in the press will almost certainly be a dead end for generalized use of the systems are not extremely error tolerant.

Unfortunately it may take another AI winter to break the hype train but I hope not.

IMHO it will have a huge impact but overconfident claims will cause real pain and misapplication for the foreseeable future.

You might say, well thats not AGI, AGI must also do such and such. Well, we can get arbitrarily close to that definition as well via RLHF.

Another objection might be: well, if thats the definition of AGI, that seems really underwhelming compared to the hype train. This says nothing about autonomy, sentience, free will -- exactly. Those concepts can or should be orthogonal to doing productive work.l, IMHO.

So, there it is. We can now make a reward model for folding socks, and use gradient descent with RL to do the motion planning.

Maybe thats AGI and maybe its not, but I'd really love it if we had a golden period between now and total enshittification that involved laundry folding robots.

Now it is here and it's like "No, what we really meant is it has to be the next Einstein".

People are forgetting how stupid people are.

GPT is already better than average human.

Most people can't do what we claim GPT must be capable of to qualify as AGI.

The only logical conclusion is that many people are also not conscious and don't qualify as being able to reason.

okay, and 500 years ago we would have said it was magic, that doesn't make it magic. people who don't understand the thing often are confused about the thing. as soon as you explain how the whole mechanism works it's obvious that it's not that thing.

> People are forgetting how stupid people are. GPT is already better than average human. Most people can't do what we claim GPT must be capable of to qualify as AGI. The only logical conclusion is that many people are also not conscious and don't qualify as being able to reason.

citation massively needed, this sounds like it was written by someone who thinks idiocracy was a documentary and not a comedy.

This sounds like someone sitting in their study, by the fire, smoking a pipe, adjusting their monocle and saying "hmm, Indubitably".

Think you are taking extreme opposite view, like humans have some holy essence that can't be understood or duplicated. Which is also not correct. Of course, technology that is not-understood can appear as magic. But nobody said anything of the sort.

The discussion was around AGI, will AI be as 'intelligent(loaded term)' as human. And I'm saying, a lot of people aren't doing anything that takes much 'intelligence' and current AI is already good enough to replace a large chunk of humans. Right now it is fragmented, there is AI that can beat GO, there is AI that can outfly an F-16 and beat human pilots, there is AI GPT/LLMs. It wont take much to start tying together technologies and have something that 'appears' human. And if it is indistinguishable, then how can we prove it isn't conscious, or opposite, prove that we are.

Most humans aren't "able to" juggle 3 balls, but most humans are physically and mentally capable of learning to be able to juggle 3 balls, it's just not a common thing for most people to learn. The same used to be true of reading and basic math, but look where we are now with some good planning and hard work!

Let's say I'm deep in a coding problem. A co-worker comes by and says "How did your team do in the game yesterday?". I say, "Um, uh... sorry, my head's not there right now." It takes us time to swap between mental "spaces".

So, if I have an AGI (defined as having a trained model for almost everything, even if that turns out to be a large number of different models), if it has to load the right model before it can reason on that topic, then that's pretty human-like. (As long as it can figure out which model to load...)

The one thing missing is that (at least some) humans can figure out linkages between different mental "spaces", to turn them into a more coherent holistic mental space, even if they don't have (all of) each space at front-of-mind at any moment. I'm not sure if this flavor of an AGI could do that - could see the connections between different models.

Humans typically use the toolset they've seen along the way to solve problems (hence if you have a hammer all problems become nails statement). When you get people that are multi-disciplinary they commonly can solve a complex problem in one field by bringing parts of solutions from other fields.

Hence if you have more life experiences (especially positive/learning ones) you are typically better off then a person who does not.

Also I think this is where a lot of interest in Q* learning after the OpenAI thing occurred, as this would be a means of allowing an AI to explore problem spaces and enlist specialist AI and tools for it to do so.

An AGI should be able to solve any creative problem a human could, with drive and knowing purpose and coherent vision. The LLMs are still narrowly focused and require human supervision.

We might well get there with chained AIs automatically training new reward models for each new problem, or by some other paradigm, but I don't feel like we're past the threshold yet.

So it seems like maybe a better title would be "LLMs don't have as advanced a theory of mind as a human does... for now..."

LLM names an specific product, aimed at solving an specific problem.

Think of it this way: the more thrust you get, the farther you'll go before control problems start to manifest. Keep pushing, and eventually the rest of the craft becomes a rounding error in the math :).

I will limit myself to saying that more thrust without control just means you're going faster when you crash.

Correct.

Note that the problem specification talks about flying, and says nothing about the landing or surviving it.

If you've found some, please let everyone know.

If you've found some, please let everyone know.

I disagree with the topic sentence.

The goal should not be to "build machines that think like people", but to build machines that think, period. The way humans think is unlikely to be the optimal way to go about thinking anyways.

Instead of talking about thinking, we should be talking about function. Less philosophy and more reality. Can the system reason itself through various representative challenges as well as or better than human? If yes, it doesn't much matter how it does it. In fact, it's probably for the best if we can create AI that thinks completely different than humans, has no consciousness or self awareness, but still can do what humans can do and more.

Game AIs are functionally much better than humans but no one believes they can think, right?

Oh, but if you are arguing for AI from a specialized tool standpoint and not a general intelligence standpoint, if you are talking about "weak" AI rather than "strong" AI, then I'm right there with you. :-)

Many scientists outside the AI field have long shared an interest in the objective of how to "think like people" using software. Far fewer care if the AI is inexplicable (or if it can't be dissected into constituent components, thereby enabling us to explore the mind's constraints and dependencies among its cognitive processes).

The paperclip optimizer is a great parable here. If you build your intelligence to build as many paperclips as cheaply as possible don't be surprised when said intelligence disassembles you and the rest of the universe to do so.

So yea, HOW starts mattering a whole lot when you want to ensure it understands that it shouldn't do some particular things.

To be clear, I think this is in fact a correct assessment of the architecture of intelligence. You can suspend thought and still function throughout your day in all ways. Discursive thought is entirely unnecessary, but it is often helpful for planning.

My observation of LLMs in such a construction of intelligence is they are entirely the thinking mind - verbal, articulate, but unmoored. There is no, for lack of a better word, “soul,” or that internal awareness that underpins that discursive thinking mind. And because that underlying awareness is non articulate and not directly observable by our thinking and feeling mind, we really don’t understand it or have a science about it. To that end, it’s really hard to pin specifically what is missing in LLMs because we don’t really understand ourselves beyond our observable thinking and emotive minds.

I look at what we are doing with LLMs and adjacent technologies and I wonder if this is sufficient, and building an AGI is perhaps not nearly as useful as we might think, if what we mean is build an awareness. Power tools of the thinking mind are amazingly powerful. Agency and awareness - to what end?

And once we do build an awareness, can we continue to consider it a tool?

While you're adding a bunch of eastern philosophy to it, we need to take a step back from 'human' intelligence and go to animal and plant intelligence to get a better idea of the massive variation in what covers thought. In animal/insects we can see that thinking is not some binary function of on or off. It is an immense range of different electrical and chemical processes that involve everything from the brain and the nerves along with chemical signaling from cells. In things like plants and molds 'thinking' doesn't even involve nerves, it's a chemical process.

A good example of this at the human level is a reflex. Your hand didn't go back to your brain to ask for instructions on how to get away from the fire. That's encoded in the meat and nerves of your arm by systems that are much older than higher intelligence. All the systems for breath, drink, eat, procreate were in place long before high level intelligence existed. Intelligence just happens to be a new floor stacked hastily on top of these legacy systems that happened to be beneficial enough it didn't go extinct.

Awareness is another one of those very deep rabbit hole questions. There are 'intelligent' animals without self awareness, but with awareness of the world around them. And they obviously have agency. Of course this is where the AI existentialists come in and say wrapping up agency, awareness, and superintelligence may not work out for humans as well as we expect.

Is this actually true? I thought it just involved a different part of the brain. Is there actually no brain involvement? Sure it does not need your awareness or decision making, but no brain? I find that hard to believe.

Simple answer: No, it does not go to the brain

Detailed answer: We are complex as all hell.

>A reflex arc is a neural pathway that controls a reflex. In vertebrates, most sensory neurons do not pass directly into the brain, but synapse in the spinal cord. This allows for faster reflex actions to occur by activating spinal motor neurons without the delay of routing signals through the brain. The brain will receive the input while the reflex is being carried out and the analysis of the signal takes place after the reflex action.

If that's how it works, then the "soul" is more like an emergent phenomenon created by the interplay between the various layers of conscious thought and the base layer of nothingness when it's all turned off. That architecture wouldn't necessarily be so difficult to replicate in AI systems.

This is simple to experience for yourself since it'd mean we stop being aware when listening so intently thoughts stop. Obviously we don't cease to be aware at such times.

You've also misunderstood what is meant by nothingness ("no thingness").

It's not. They don't realize it, they're merely referring to stopping your internal monologue. There are dozens of other mental processes going on in any given waking moment. Even actual top shelf cognition is going on, it just occurs in a "language of thought".

They certainly have realized that. It's one of the first things you notice doing awareness meditation; thoughts appear from nowhere even if you didn't try to think them.

But to my understanding the idea of nothingness being some objective in Buddhism isn’t the case - but it’s often described as such because that state of pure awareness without encumbering thought and attachment in many ways to an unpracticed person feels like nothingness. After all, the awareness is silent, even if it is where all thought and feeling spring from.

Finally, awareness isn’t that moment you snap back to thought. You’re always aware. We just tend to be primarily aware of our thoughts and emotions. We walk around in a haze of the past and future and fiction as the world ticks by around us, and we tend to live in what isn’t rather than what is. You don’t disappear in the sense that you cease to be as an individual mind, you are always yourself - that’s a tautology. What you lose is the sense of some identity that’s separate from what you ARE in this very moment. You aren’t a programmer, you aren’t a Democrat, you aren’t a XYZ. You are what you are, and what that is changes constantly, so can’t be singularly defined or held onto as some consistent thing over time with labels and structure. You just simply are.

"You don’t disappear in the sense that you cease to be as an individual mind, you are always yourself - that’s a tautology. What you lose is the sense of some identity that’s separate from what you ARE in this very moment."

This assumes that there's any concept of "you" that exists independent of your thoughts whatsoever. I think you're right that some Buddhist thinkers believe in this kind of essential awareness underlying conscious thought that you're describing, but others would say there is literally nothing underneath. "The self is an illusion", "all is emptiness", etc. If you believe in those ideas, then you have no awareness independent of conscious thought because there is no you independent of conscious thought.

The self as an illusion though refers to the concept that we as we exist now is ever changing and can’t be kept as some identity as that identity is necessarily not who you actually are. Our memories are not real - just shadows of an experience, and our aspirations are fiction. That does not however mean you don’t exist. You do exist, and as you move beyond the basics of mindfulness and releasing of attachments our role in a broader human experience becomes crucial - loving kindness (metta), and other aspects, are what are suppose to fill that void left by detaching from self and what isn’t. You move from being obsessed with self to becoming a force of goodness in the world by virtue of your existence. This couldn’t possibly be the case if the goal were nothingness and that’s it. This is where karma and other concepts come into play.

Meditation techniques that focus on breath or the body are an attempt to make you do the breathing/sensing consciously. If you film yourself and later look at what you did, you'll notice you aren't breathing well when you're breathing consciously, so you're probably depriving yourself of oxygen, lowering blood concentration in certain brain regions and you hope it will be the brain region associated with conceptualizing, language etc.

You can do the same with sleep. You can try to consciously fall asleep, and just like breathing, you will have a hard time because there's a reason why falling asleep is not conscious (or in other words it does not go through the regions of the brain that conceptualize). You can experience the balance center shutting down (feels like falling or turning) and you can go even deeper and feel the fear of the "ego" dying (temporarily). What remains is definitely much different than waking or dreaming state. But it is still not that "awareness/nothingness".

If you’re doing it the way intended you would 100% be aware of your irregular breath or pausing. In fact beginners vipassana often advises counting the breaths individually in a cycle 1..10, and resetting the count when you lose track of your breathing. You intensely focus on the sensation of the air moving through your nostrils, the muscles contracting, your clothing shifting.

However it’s not about controlling your breathing, so it’s not the same as breathing consciously. It’s observing passively. Often you’ll notice that you are breathing irregularly, not because of the meditation, but because you typically are stressed and tight in your musculature due to the way you’re thinking. You can then loosen and reset your patterns of breath to be more natural, deep, and complete.

A goal isn’t to stop with observing the breath though, and you work towards having a total awareness of the entire body at once, shifting your center of existence from your head to the rest of your body. You then incorporate sounds and events in your environment. This requires an intense amount of mental power, and is entirely different from your description of oxygen deprivation. Thought ceases because it interferes with being aware, not because you are experiencing brain death.

This is a byproduct of the process. You cannot observe passively if you still have a very strong imprint of a doer. When you start observing the tingles and the sensations, you still observe them from the center and there's a distance from the center and the sensations. The only way this center disappears is if the regions of the brain that create imprints lower their activity.

I'd say it is very easy to accomplish it when you're sleepy (especially after you wake up during the night and go back to sleep). There's no need to shut anything down through high focus, brain does it naturally to paralyze the body and lose the waking state.

"My Stroke of Insight" by Jill Bolte Taylor goes through many side-effects experienced by the meditators, but through a lens of a brain stroke.

> Thought ceases because it interferes with being aware, not because you are experiencing brain death.

Not sure about that. The verbal/visual thinking can be a strong feedback loop to the underlying unconscious processes. The only way I can see that it stops is if it is suppressed to unconscious, you've learned to not have it in focus. Also, many people have no visual and verbal thoughts. They don't have an imprint of standard modes of thinking at all. I'd say the definition of thought needs to expand to sensing. Any sensation is a thought. Focus on verbal/visual thoughts is misplaced.

I do agree that people learn to eventually do this without the side effects of practice. They can probably transition to a different brain activity without dealing with the breath ever again.

I think a much better standard for meditators is to ask them if they feel like their whole body is alien, or if they have something like alien hand syndrome. Losing thoughts, yet still being the body (or even the space around the body) is just another form of thoughts.

The imprint of a doer gives you the feeling of someone controlling the body or doing the thinking. For example, I can get lost in thoughts so hard that I no longer have imprints of controlling the body. Somehow I leave the shower and dress myself yet I know I don't remember doing any of it.

To also move the conclusion further, it sounds like the ultimate goal is to feel like you're not separate but that you're whole, so in that case it must be that this body, from that perspective, is fully without individual imprint, behaving completely like an input/output machine, no inner subjective experience present.

If you assume that "the eyes are the window to the soul", you notice some interesting properties.

1. It is far more observable from the outside (eyes open/lidded/closed, emotion read in eyes)

2. It affects behavior in a diffuse way

3. It pays attention but does not dictate

My pet theory about human consciousness is that is that consciousness is simply recursive theory of mind. Theory of mind [1] is our ability to simulate and reason about the mental states of others. It's how we predict what people are thinking and how they will react to our actions, which is critical for choosing how to act in a social environment.

But when you're thinking about what's in someone's head, one of the things might be them thinking about you. So now you're imagining your own mind from the perspective of another mind. I believe that's entirely what our sense of consciousness is. It's our social reasoning applied to ourselves.

If my pet theory is correct, it implies that the level of consciousness of any species would directly correlate to how social the species is. Solitary animals with little need for theory of mind would have no self awareness in the way that we experience it. They'd live in a zen-like perpetual auto-pilot where they do but couldn't explain why they do what they do... because they will never explain it to anyone anyway.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_mind

That direction would likely contain weird outcomes if the science progressed, something like "Dogs are barely-conscious due to their pack structure, they have a couple levels of recursive theory of mind but they can't sustain it as deep as we can. But cats didn't have that pack structure, they're not conscious at all." Or, "this person has such severe autism that he cannot fundamentally understand others' minds or what others interpret his mind to be, so we've downgraded his classification to unconscious. He'll talk your ear off about the various cars produced in a golden age between 1972 and 1984, but because he doesn't really know what it means for you to be listening we regard it as sleep-talking."

It also just kind of doesn't sound right. "What happens when we go to sleep? Well, we stop thinking about what others think we think, and we simply accept what they think about us." That doesn't sound like any sleep I experience -- it might describe some of my dreams, but of course dreams are anomalous conscious experiences that happen during sleep so that also misses the mark.

I mean "conscious" in the sense of self-awareness or sentience.

I'm also not ascribing any moral or cognitive superiority or inferiority to different levels of it. The fact that a cat might be less self-aware of its suffering because it think about how it would explain its pain to other cats does mean imply that I'm saying it should be OK to torture cats.

I'm just interested in what is going in human brains when we "feel self-aware". What are we doing when we're thinking about what we're doing? Where does that sense of perceptual distance come from when we are aware of ourselves? And my pet theory is that the distance comes from imagining how we look through others' eyes and developed from our highly advanced social reasoning.

Let's say the soul is exclusively located in eye-to-eye contact. Theres a lot of information in how that contact is broken, how long its broken for, and what happens in between.

(Enemy's-gate-is-down-style reorientation)

Thesis : The very thing (a brain module) which allows for outside object continuity, that same brain module maintains inside self / personality / identity continuity.

Reasoning :

Evolution found out modelling the outside world is helpful for survival. Some eons later, it figured out modelling yourself (self / agent) modelling the outside world is also helpful. In the outside world, we keep track of continuity of objects through a brain module which hones in on the essence of objects (e.g. tracking a prey or predator.) so that EXACT matching algorithms aren't applied but ONLY approximate ones. As soon as a high enough approximate match (>95%) is found, we "register" it to be an exact match. i.e. the Brain bumps up the confidence level to 100%. This is also the reason why we consider our friend Bob to be the same childhood Bob even though he has different hairstyle, clothes, and other such properties. We don't call Bob who looks different than yesterday as an Imposter. The damage to this brain module could lead us to call Bob today an imposter. This same module also tracks continuity of self in a similar manner. Even though our "self" changes from childhood to adult we "register" "changing self" to be the same thing. i.e. internally we bump up the confidence to 100% when memories, etc. match and provide a coherent picture of the self. A multiple personality disorder is just different stable states of neural attractor states. Continuity is local to a personality but not global and hence transient. This local continuity of information could link up globally, giving rise to coherent single personality.

Capgras Syndrome :

Ramachandran Capgras Delusion Case : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xczrDAGfT4

And people say LLM output is nonsense.

I'm blind with glass eyeballs. Does this mean my soul is easier to access than yours? Or is it harder because there's something specific about the eyeball that makes it the window?

Decision making requires imagination or the ability to envision alternative future states that may result from various choices.

Imagination is the start of abstract thinking. Consciousness results from the individual thinking abstractly about itself and how it interacts with the world.

I believe this is more or less the definition of human mental illness. I have to say that while I know it's really not possible, I wish people would stop pulling on these threads. I got into this line of work because I thought video games were cool, not because I wanted to philosophize about theories of mind and what intelligence is. I really don't like thinking about whether I'm just some sort of automaton made out of meat rather than metal and silicon.

Maybe that's their goal.

But for many users of AI, the goal is to have easy and affordable access to a machine that, for some input (perhaps in a tightly constrained domain), gives us the output that we would expect from a high-functioning human being.

When I use ChatGPT as a coding helper, I really don't care about its "theory of mind." And its insights are already as deep (actually more deep) as I get from most humans I ask for help. Real humans, not Don Knuth, who is unavailable to help me.

IIRC one of the prompting techniques developed this year was to ask the model who are some world class experts in a field and then have it write as if it was that group collaborating on the topic.

This was my thought as well. But then I figured if I can't get someone to give me thoughtful feedback, I might have bigger problems to solve.

[1] normally I find HN discussions about what if chatGPT is human or "humans are just autocompletes" to be highschool-level scifi and cringe respectively

And by "us" I mean "those of us who choose to use ChatGPT," and not that I was forcing you to use ChatGPT.

It's true, I don't morally object to asking ChatGPT to "do my labour." It raises no red flag for me. (Okay, there's the IP red-flag about how ChatGPT was trained, but I don't think that's what you mean.)

Maybe and maybe not. Being sentient or even sapient doesn’t mean it has human emotions, feelings or motivations. You have to be very careful when ascribing naturally evolved emotions and motivations to something that is not a naturally evolved intellect.

LLM's are basically a validation of Searle's Chinese room. What they've proven is that you can build functioning systems that perform intelligent tasks purely at the level of syntax. But there is no (or very little) understanding of semantics. If I ask a person on how to end the world, whether I ask in French or English or base64 or perform a 50 word incantation beforehand likely does not matter. (unless of course the human is also just parroting an answer)

[1] https://youtu.be/zjkBMFhNj_g?t=2974

The Chinese room argument is bad in that it hides an assumption of mind/body dualism. If you believe that humans have "souls" and other things do not, then you have a qualitative difference between a human or a machine. On the other hand, if you are a materialist then you are faced with the problem that humans don't have much understanding of semantics either. We're all chemical processes and it's hard for those to get much into semantics.

But then, the difference between LLMs and humans becomes quantitative, sort of, and since I cannot say that LLMs and humans are qualitatively different, the only argument I can find is that in my experience, LLMs have never responded in a way that leads me to believe that they are anything other than a statistical model of language. Humans, on the other hand, are not a statistical model of language.

It's because our bandwith and monkey brains are so slow that we're forced to operate at a level of semantics. We can't just make inferences from almost infinite amounts of data the same way we can't play chess like Stockfish or do math like a calculator. The dualism is precisely in the opposite view, that computation is somehow "substrate independent". Searle argues we can have AI that has understanding the way we do, just that it's going to look more like an organic brain as a result.

The important insight from LLMs is that they're not like us at all but that doesn't make them less effective or intelligent. We do have plenty of understanding, we need to because we rely on a particular kind of reasoning, but artificial systems don't need to converge on that.

Searle seems to see a distinction between the "substrates" (which means an LLM cannot be intelligent; it's running on regular computer hardware and there's nothing to be found which "understands"), but unless someone can point out exactly what part of the substrate is intelligent, I am going to continue to suggest that his substrate difference is exactly identical to having a soul or not having a soul.

I, as a materialist, assert that, if you dug through my noggin down to the level of subatomic particles you will never find anything that is intelligent or which understands. (Quantum mechanics does not help here, by the way. It just replaces a (rather naive) determinism with randomness---see Bell's Inequality.) There is no magic going on there. You and your tree are both doing nothing but chemistry and physics (you share something like 50% of your genes, by the way). And that means that a computer could, in principle, behave as intelligently as I do. That's "substrate independence".

Now, whether a given system does do so or not is another question entirely. :-)

LLMs are fast like calculators but it seems the optimization process that generates the parameter weights still produces "fuzzy semantics" and the Othello emergence is just one example.

Human insight is really easy to break, confidence men wouldn't really be a thing if it were hard to break. Simply putting a statement like "I love you" in front of a statement commonly overrides our intellect. Or offering a chocolate bar in trade of our passwords. If you want a human to tell you how to end the world, you'd just convince them to be your friend first.

That's not how LLMs work though, and I'm increasingly convinced that "syntax" and "semantics" are turning into annoyingly useless ideas people forget are descriptive, in the same way grammar books and dictionaries are descriptive.

My model of LLMs is that, in training, they're positioning inputs in an absurdly high-dimensional[0] latent space. That space is big enough to encode anything you'd consider "syntax" and "semantics" on some subset of dimensions. As a result, the model sidesteps the issue of "source of meaning" - there is no meaning but that formed through associations (proximity). This is pretty much how we do it, too - when you think of "chair", there is no token for platonic ideal of a chair in your mind. The word "chair" has meanings and connotations defined via other words, which themselves are defined via other words, ad infinitum, with the only grounding being associations to sensory inputs.

--

[0] - On the order of 100 000 dimensions for GPT-4, perhaps more now for GPT-4V / GPT-4-Turbo.

Not even slightly. See Cantor's diagonal argument.

See also Plato's cave for syntax vs semantics.

Cantor's diagonal argument, if important, can just become one of the hundred thousand dimensions of the latent space. "Coordinate #12321 - degree of similarity to diagonal argument".

> See also Plato's cave for syntax vs semantics.

I don't see it. All there ever is are projections. There are just more dimensions in the mind space than in the physical space.

As for the rest of it, the LLM is basically "raw compute". You need a self-referential loop and long-term memories for it to even have the notion of self. But looking at it at that level and discounting it as "incapable of thinking" is missing the point - it's the larger system of which LLM is one part, albeit a key one (and which we're still trying to figure out how to build) that might actually be conscious etc.

Basically inventing a board game and play against ChatGPT and see what happened. It was not able to do a single move, even having provided all the possible start moves in the prompt as part of the rules.

Not that I had a lot of hope about it, but it was definitely way worst than I expected.

If someone wants to take a look at it:

https://joseprupi.github.io/misc/2023/06/08/chat_gpt_board_g...

Here's my attempt at similar conversation — it seems GPT-4 is able to visualise the board and at least do a valid first move.

https://chat.openai.com/share/98427e21-678c-4290-aa8f-da8e93...

The model was whatever was up that that time, so probably was 3.5 if you say so.

Also in this game if I don't move the queen I force a draw, right?

I don't know, take your own conclusions, I tried what I tried with the results I got. And the reason I created a Monte Carlo Engine to play the game was specifically because of this, I expected ChatGPT to be able to make moves but actually not being good with the game. You can try yourself, the code is available.

> Also in this game if I don't move the queen I force a draw, right?

I don't know as there is no time but I assume it is mandatory to move when, what happens in a chess game with no time if someone does not want to move? Same applies here.

The API cost of the game is getting noticeable, but I think you were just being naive about LLM limitations, there is simply no way that it can answer all questions simply by memorization. A simpler way is to just invent a programming language and ask the model to solve problems with it, at least I don't have to write down the position of a game ahah

Also I have trained models to do additions in the past, I removed many possible combinations of digits to show in the dataset, but after training the model was able to solve all of them, meaning it learned the algorithm and not just memorized the answers, I did it because a friend of mine thought like you that LLMs just memorize the answers from the dataset and cannot learn, but that is not how they work.

About the game, I realize that I cannot move the queen like in chess, so in this game I will eventually fall into a zugzwang, trying not to move the queen.

My exact entire point was that it would be really surprising that chatgt only knowing chess rules could play at 1400 ELO level.

And I did not give a crap about how to play a single game and was not meant to see how smart HN users are but how chatGPT is, but whatever conclusion a human would take without playing a single game (not trying to move the queeen) is what chatgpt should do, right?

BTW, I simulated few games of the engine against the engine to see what happened and it does not seem as obvious as you say.

I've bought 'new' board games for kids.

Then, I have been un-able to play because the instructions were pretty bad.

Humans also need to 'learn'. Need a few play-throughs.

No human is going out and 'in a vacuum' with no experience, buying Risk and from scratch, read instructions and play perfect game winning strategy.

> If it is not memorizing, how do you think is doing it? (me)

> by trying to learning the general rules that to explain the dataset and minimize its loss. That’s what machine learning is about, it’s not called machine memorizing.

The interesting thing about the one-token-at-a-time process in OpenAI transformer LLMs is how the Attention Mechanism is executing ~1600 processes in parallel over the entire context window for each new token generated. So it is dynamically re-evaluating the entire context (including the rules of the game) in relation to the next token at each step.

Consider a typical LLM token vector used to train and interact with an LLM.

Now imagine that other aspects of being human (sensory input, emotional input, physical body sensation, gut feelings, etc.) could be added as metadata to the the token stream, along with some kind of attention function that amplified or diminished the importance of those at any given time period -- all still represented as a stream of tokens.

If an LLM could be trained on input that was enriched by all of the above kind of data, then quite likely the output would feel much more human than the responses we get from LLMs.

Humans are moody, we get headaches, we feel drawn to or repulsed by others, we brood and ruminate at times, we find ourselves wanting to impress some people, some topics make us feel alive while others make us feel bored.

Human intelligence is always colored by the human experience of obtaining it. Obviously we don't obtain it by getting trained on terabytes of data all at once disconnected from bodily experience.

Seemingly we could simulate a "body" and provide that as real time token metadata for an LLM to incorporate, and we might get more moodiness, nostalgia, ambition, etc.

Asking for a theory of mind is in fact committing the Cartesian error of making a mind/body distinction. What is missing with LLMs is a theory of mindbody... similarity to spacetime is not accidental as humans often fail to unify concepts at first.

LLMs are simply time series predictors that can handle massive numbers of parameters in a way that allows them to generate corresponding sequences of tokens that (when mapped back into words) we judge as humanlike or intelligence-like, but those are simply patterns of logic that come from word order, which is closely related in human languages to semantics.

It's silly to think that we humans are not abstractly representable as a probabilistic time series prediction of information. What isn't?

Then the next research step could be to study those properties so as to reconstruct/reproduce a theory of mind-body AI, without needing any embodiment process at all to obtain it. Is that, in principle, possible? It is unclear me.

... a hardware interface that generates a token stream from a living human's body would seem to enable this at some level.

Not sure how it would work at scale. Maybe something much simpler like phones with built-in VOC sensors that can detect nuances of the user's perspiration, combined with real time emotion sensing via gait, voice, along with metadata that is already available would be sufficient to produce such a token stream... who knows.

A hardware interface that generated a datastream from sensors monitoring the status and surroundings of the hardware the LLM was running on would be more to the point.

The eval is a weird, noisy visual task (picture of astronaut with “care packages”). Their results are hopelessly narrow.

A better eval is to use actual scientifically tested psychology test on text (the native and strongest domain for LLMs), for example the sort of scenarios used to gauge when children develop theory of mind (“Alice puts her keys on the table then leaves the room. Bob moves the keys to the drawer. Alice returns. Where does she think the keys are?”) which GPT-4 can handle easily; it is very clear from this that GPT has a theory of mind.

A negative result doesn’t disprove capabilities; it could easily show your eval is garbage. Showing a robust positive capability is a more robust result.

Aren't you confusing having a theory of mind with being able to output the right answer to a test? Isn't your proposed evaluation especially problematic because an "actual scientifically tested psychology test" is likely in the training data along with a lot of discussion and analysis of that test and the correct and incorrect answers that can be given?

Of course, another approach you can take if you suspect contamination is to ask follow-up questions that are less likely to be in any training data; if the LLM is a mere stochastic parrot without a ToM it will not be able to give well-formed answers to follow-up questions.

Perhaps if I'd said "established psychology research methodology" the intent would have been clearer?

As far as I'm concerned, the only person I can be certain is concious is me.

It doesn't have to be a "scientifically tested psychology test"

Construct your own story with multiple characters of varying knowledge and beliefs and see how it does.

With prior knowledge of the test, even something that verifiably lacks the cognitive capability to legitimately pass the test (e.g. FizzBuzz level stuff) can pass by cheating.

Nothing I’ve seen shows evidence of any sort of abstract concepts in there.

I'm wary of what happens when AIs can interface directly with the real world. LLMs only read about the world second-hand. An embodied neural net that could observe cause and effect, push pokers into fires and witness the metal glowing red, then learn from the experience. Spooky.

The conscious "why" comes after the decision. In that sense it's exactly the kind of bullshit machine that LLMs are.

Note: if the result is someone reporting having made a decision before brain activity is seen, my next question is going to be "How does that work?"

Here's a study from 2009 showing that the problem gets solved but it takes up to 8 seconds for the person to announce that the problem is solved.

Showing that even for problem solving, there's a giant unconscious machinery that is active. Although I assume they cannot discount the effects of the conscious bits (struggle, suffering, anxiety, active as a mirror of that problem solving effort being a feedback loop to this unconscious effort).

This is not how we figure conscious explanations are often(always?) post-hoc rationalizations.

See -

Split brain experiments - https://www.nature.com/articles/483260a

Experiments on Choice preferences -https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3196841/

An important statement in the article is this...

>“As the decision of what to think about is made, executive areas of the brain choose the thought-trace which is stronger. In, other words, if any pre-existing brain activity matches one of your choices, then your brain will be more likely to pick that option as it gets boosted by the pre-existing brain activity.

If you observe con men, politicians, and advertisers, they'll commonly use precursors to pre-prime the pump in influencing what you'll agree to.

My Ph.D is actually about this. Here's a paper: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal...

The brain is trying to 'predict' the next sensory input, and that prediction is our awareness. What we would call our 'conscious self'.

It makes point of calling it a 'controlled hallucinations', in that what we experience as our self. "Hallucination" being the experience we have as our brain 'predicting/controlling' for the sensory input. So All inputs come together in a 'hallucination', but it is averaged 'Bayesian', with the actions we are taking at same time. So Action + Prediction = Self.

It is funny that using the word 'hallucinate' in AI has become so common and it is also used in Humans. And so few people seem to make connection that they are actually very similar, and far from being an argument against AI consciousness, is argument for how similar they are.

The problem is, our brain is constructing reality, it can 'make things up', this has been shown in countless studies. And now that we have AI doing it too, it seems like easy association to make.

I'm with you until this pair of sentences because I believe you are confusing ontological subjectivity (which is fine, for our purposes) with epistemic subjectivity (which isn't).

Hallucination is an ontologically subjective phenomenon, requiring an experiencer to experience it. "Making shit up" similarly implies an "intentional stance" (Dennett), wherein the AI agent is constructing a world model as it interacts with the world. That isn't required to arrive at a "stochastic parrot" that spouts nonsense.

"Generating nonsense" is closer to what the AI is doing. It's generating text that we are unable to interpret, not revealing its errors of reasoning through its speech. It's not reasoning; it's generating tokens.

tl;dr: Ontological vs epistemic subjectivity. There's no reason to affirm AI is hallucinating because there's no reason to affirm its experiencing anything.

(Please forgive my multiple edits; it's a clumsy-words kind of day.)

The problem is, if a brain neural net has experiences, does a computer neural net also have experiences.

I don't like 'hallucinate' as description because everyone gets confused with mental illness. But it is more like the old Buddhist fable, mistaking a 'rope' for a 'snake', doing a double take, and then realizing it is just a 'rope'.

Humans can make mistakes based on their incomplete model of the inputs, and thus 'hallucinate' an answer just like an LLM might.

But I'm more in the camp that philosophical zombies are impossible. That by the time an AI can completely mimic a human, they would also be having some internal experience of some kind like a human, maybe not identical but something. But of course, it can't be proven either way, for AI or Humans. We only assume other minds experience reality like we do, but even that can't be 'proven'.

That, and confidence, and ideally a good memory so that they can keep track of what they have previously said to someone.

I perceive a moving of the goalposts as machine intelligence improves. Once we'd have been happy with smarter than an especially stupid person, now I think we're aiming at smarter than the smartest person.

Goal posts only exist in games.

These systems are engineering products to be leveraged in enginenering processes. We want to understand what they're good at and what they're bad at, and what potential they show for further refinement. There are no goal posts or "happy with" criteria in that context, and when we find ourselves adjusting the language we use to describe them because of how we see them work, we're trying to refine our ability to express their capabilities and suitabilities.

Intelligence, in particular, is a very poor and ambiguous word to be stuck using in technical contexts and so we're likely to just gradually shed it over time to reduce confusion as we hone in on better ways to talk about these systems. We've repeatedly done the same for earlier advances in the field, and for the same reason.

We get a better and better idea of what this hazy term "intelligence" means as we DIY tinker with making our own new ones.

Once we'd have been happy with smarter than an especially stupid person, now I think we're aiming at smarter than the smartest person.

We're going to get there sooner than we think. When we get there, we will have new things to regret in ways we'd never thought of before.

I'll take that. My own expectation is I'll have a few minutes-to-months to say "I told you so".

If you regard "an especially stupid person" as someone with significant cognitive or communication limits, then Parry and Eliza's Doctor are pretty fair simulations of paranoid schizophrenia (as it was understood at the time) and Rogerian therapy. Likewise, chess and go AIs are pretty damn smart, except they can't do anything else.

The point is that, if you accept limits on what the machine needs to do, then "intelligence" as defined by behavior you can recognize becomes trivially and meaninglessly easy.

(It's sort of like evaluating a person's competence: a minority person has to be more competent than their cohort because non-minority people get the benefit of the doubt.)

"A chief goal of levers (cranes, etc.) engineering would be to build devices that lift like people"

There is gain in implementing desirable qualities. Just that.

Odd restriction. Why not investigate text-based ones?

Or is “vision-based” a technical term that encompasses models that were trained on text?

Funnily enough, this statement also applies to people that are scared of AI.

Maybe a bit off topic but does anyone else have that friend who sends them fear mongering AI videos with captions like "shocking AI" that are blatantly unimpressive or completely fake?

What is the best way to subdue this kind of fear in a friend, sending them written articles from high level researchers like Brooks does not work.

Edit: this is may turning to a search for truth and definitions of reality question. When the last person alive is no longer able to tell whether they're speaking to an AI, does it actually matter whether it's true generalized intelligence or just an emergent approximation?

Similarly, if you want to approximate a human, an LLM may be the best we can do right now, but it's hardly a good approximation.