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Scaling Transformers for skillful and reliable medium-range weather forecasting (arxiv.org)
2 points by famouswaffles on Dec 8, 2023 | hide | past | pdf | discuss on HN

In plain words: A plain transformer predicts weather changes over randomly chosen time gaps, then averages several guesses for the same moment into one forecast. It beats today's best weather models beyond 7 days while using orders of magnitude less training data and computing power.

Abstract · Scaling transformer neural networks for skillful and reliable medium-range weather forecasting

Weather forecasting is a fundamental problem for anticipating and mitigating the impacts of climate change. Recently, data-driven approaches for weather forecasting based on deep learning have shown great promise, achieving accuracies that are competitive with operational systems. However, those methods often employ complex, customized architectures without sufficient ablation analysis, making it difficult to understand what truly contributes to their success. Here we introduce Stormer, a simple transformer model that achieves state-of-the-art performance on weather forecasting with minimal changes to the standard transformer backbone. We identify the key components of Stormer through careful empirical analyses, including weather-specific embedding, randomized dynamics forecast, and pressure-weighted loss. At the core of Stormer is a randomized forecasting objective that trains the model to forecast the weather dynamics over varying time intervals. During inference, this allows us to produce multiple forecasts for a target lead time and combine them to obtain better forecast accuracy. On WeatherBench 2, Stormer performs competitively at short to medium-range forecasts and outperforms current methods beyond 7 days, while requiring orders-of-magnitude less training data and compute. Additionally, we demonstrate Stormer's favorable scaling properties, showing consistent improvements in forecast accuracy with increases in model size and training tokens. Code and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/tung-nd/stormer.

Tung Nguyen, Rohan Shah, Hritik Bansal, Troy Arcomano, Romit Maulik, Veerabhadra Kotamarthi, Ian Foster, Sandeep Madireddy, Aditya Grover
arXiv:2312.03876 · physics.ao-ph, cs.AI, cs.LG · submitted Dec 6, 2023 · updated Oct 22, 2024
abstract · pdf · html · Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2024)

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