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Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models (arxiv.org)
3 points by p1esk on Apr 4, 2024 | hide | past | pdf | discuss on HN

In plain words: A system lets a language model search for fresh news, make predictions about future events, and combine them into one answer. On questions posted after its training data ended, it nearly matched the crowd of top forecasters and sometimes beat them.

Abstract

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

Danny Halawi, Fred Zhang, Chen Yueh-Han, Jacob Steinhardt
arXiv:2402.18563 · cs.LG, cs.AI, cs.CL, cs.IR · submitted Feb 28, 2024
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