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Some models are useful, but for how long?: When to refit prediction models (arxiv.org)
1 point by nequo on May 26, 2024 | hide | past | pdf | discuss on HN

In plain words: A rule decides when to retrain a costly prediction model versus quickly adjusting it, weighing the cheap option's risk of drifting against the expensive one's cost while keeping results unbiased. Tests on simulated, electricity, and flu data showed the trade-off can be managed.

Abstract · Some models are useful, but for how long?: A decision theoretic approach to choosing when to refit large-scale prediction models

Large-scale prediction models using tools from artificial intelligence (AI) or machine learning (ML) are increasingly common across a variety of industries and scientific domains. Despite their effectiveness, training AI and ML tools at scale can cost tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars (or more); and even after a model is trained, substantial resources must be invested to keep models up-to-date. This paper presents a decision-theoretic framework for deciding when to refit an AI/ML model when the goal is to perform unbiased statistical inference using partially AI/ML-generated data. Drawing on portfolio optimization theory, we treat the decision of {\it recalibrating} a model or statistical inference versus {\it refitting} the model as a choice between ``investing'' in one of two ``assets.'' One asset, recalibrating the model based on another model, is quick and relatively inexpensive but bears uncertainty from sampling and may not be robust to model drift. The other asset, {\it refitting} the model, is costly but removes the drift concern (though not statistical uncertainty from sampling). We present a framework for balancing these two potential investments while preserving statistical validity. We evaluate the framework using simulation and data on electricity usage and predicting flu trends.

Kentaro Hoffman, Stephen Salerno, Jeff Leek, Tyler McCormick
arXiv:2405.13926 · stat.ME, econ.EM · submitted May 22, 2024 · updated Jan 7, 2025
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