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An Evaluation of Deep Learning Models for Stock Market Trend Prediction (arxiv.org)
1 point by beefman on Aug 23, 2024 | hide | past | pdf | 1 comment on HN

In plain words: Several deep learning models were tested on daily and hourly stock prices, smoothed by wavelet denoising, to predict whether prices rise or fall; one is a new long-memory model adapted for time series. It won, hitting 72.82% accuracy on the Brazilian ETF's daily data.

Abstract

The stock market is a fundamental component of financial systems, reflecting economic health, providing investment opportunities, and influencing global dynamics. Accurate stock market predictions can lead to significant gains and promote better investment decisions. However, predicting stock market trends is challenging due to their non-linear and stochastic nature. This study investigates the efficacy of advanced deep learning models for short-term trend forecasting using daily and hourly closing prices from the S&P 500 index and the Brazilian ETF EWZ. The models explored include Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN), Neural Basis Expansion Analysis for Time Series Forecasting (N-BEATS), Temporal Fusion Transformers (TFT), Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series Forecasting (N-HiTS), and Time-series Dense Encoder (TiDE). Furthermore, we introduce the Extended Long Short-Term Memory for Time Series (xLSTM-TS) model, an xLSTM adaptation optimised for time series prediction. Wavelet denoising techniques were applied to smooth the signal and reduce minor fluctuations, providing cleaner data as input for all approaches. Denoising significantly improved performance in predicting stock price direction. Among the models tested, xLSTM-TS consistently outperformed others. For example, it achieved a test accuracy of 72.82% and an F1 score of 73.16% on the EWZ daily dataset. By leveraging advanced deep learning models and effective data preprocessing techniques, this research provides valuable insights into the application of machine learning for market movement forecasting, highlighting both the potential and the challenges involved.

Gonzalo Lopez Gil, Paul Duhamel-Sebline, Andrew McCarren
arXiv:2408.12408 · cs.LG · submitted Aug 22, 2024
abstract · pdf · html

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I understand if you can do this at scale you already the best of the best. The best data. The best of everything. Money isn’t an issue for you if you can do this at scale.