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LLM forecasters rapidly approaching human-level performance (arxiv.org)
1 point by drcwpl on Jan 13, 2025 | hide | past | pdf | 1 comment on HN

In plain words: Score a forecasting AI instantly by checking whether its answers to related questions contradict each other, like giving both parties a 60% chance of winning, which a trader could profit from. These checks tracked how well forecasters really did once outcomes were known.

Abstract · Consistency Checks for Language Model Forecasters

Forecasting is a task that is difficult to evaluate: the ground truth can only be known in the future. Recent work showing LLM forecasters rapidly approaching human-level performance begs the question: how can we benchmark and evaluate these forecasters instantaneously? Following the consistency check framework, we measure the performance of forecasters in terms of the consistency of their predictions on different logically-related questions. We propose a new, general consistency metric based on arbitrage: for example, if a forecasting AI illogically predicts that both the Democratic and Republican parties have 60% probability of winning the 2024 US presidential election, an arbitrageur can trade against the forecaster's predictions and make a profit. We build an automated evaluation system that generates a set of base questions, instantiates consistency checks from these questions, elicits the predictions of the forecaster, and measures the consistency of the predictions. We then build a standard, proper-scoring-rule forecasting benchmark, and show that our (instantaneous) consistency metrics correlate with LLM forecasters' ground truth Brier scores (which are only known in the future). We also release a consistency benchmark that resolves in 2028, providing a long-term evaluation tool for forecasting.

Daniel Paleka, Abhimanyu Pallavi Sudhir, Alejandro Alvarez, Vineeth Bhat, Adam Shen, Evan Wang, Florian Tramèr
arXiv:2412.18544 · cs.LG, cs.AI, cs.CL, stat.ML · submitted Dec 24, 2024 · updated Jan 10, 2025
abstract · pdf · html · 55 pages, 25 figures. Submitted to ICLR 2025

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>rapidly approaching human-level performance

So, equally dissapointing?