In plain words: Math shows what happens when each new model trains on real data mixed with growing amounts of earlier models' output. Under standard assumptions, accuracy holds even as real data shrinks to nothing; without them, quality can crash fast even with real data still present.
Abstract
The widespread use of generative models has created a feedback loop, in which each generation of models is trained on data partially produced by its predecessors. This process has raised concerns about model collapse: A critical degradation in performance caused by repeated training on synthetic data. However, different analyses in the literature have reached different conclusions as to the severity of model collapse. As such, it remains unclear how concerning this phenomenon is, and under which assumptions it can be avoided. To address this, we theoretically study model collapse for maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), in a natural setting where synthetic data is gradually added to the original data set. Under standard assumptions (similar to those long used for proving asymptotic consistency and normality of MLE), we establish non-asymptotic bounds showing that collapse can be avoided even as the fraction of real data vanishes. On the other hand, we prove that some assumptions (beyond MLE consistency) are indeed necessary: Without them, model collapse can occur arbitrarily quickly, even when the original data is still present in the training set. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first rigorous examples of iterative generative modeling with accumulating data that rapidly leads to model collapse.
Daniel Barzilai, Ohad Shamir
arXiv:2505.19046 · stat.ML, cs.LG · submitted May 25, 2025 · updated Mar 26, 2026
abstract · pdf · html