about
Modeling open-world cognition as on-demand synthesis of probabilistic models (arxiv.org)
25 points by PaulHoule on Aug 2, 2025 | hide | past | pdf | discuss on HN

In plain words: When a new situation comes up, the system pulls in relevant background knowledge and builds a custom probability model just for that case, then reasons with it. On sports puzzles with new variables, it matched people's judgments better than a language model reasoning alone.

Abstract · Modeling Open-World Cognition as On-Demand Synthesis of Probabilistic Models

When faced with novel situations, people are able to marshal relevant considerations from a wide range of background knowledge and put these to use in inferences and predictions. What permits us to draw in globally relevant information and reason over it coherently? Here, we explore the hypothesis that people use a combination of distributed and symbolic representations to construct bespoke mental models tailored to novel situations. We propose a computational implementation of this idea -- a ``Model Synthesis Architecture'' (MSA) -- using language models to implement global relevance-based retrieval and model synthesis and probabilistic programs to implement bespoke, coherent world models. We evaluate our MSA as a model of human judgments on a novel reasoning dataset. The dataset -- built around a `Model Olympics` domain of sports vignettes -- tests models' capacity for human-like, open-ended reasoning by requiring (i) judgments about novel causal structures described in language; (ii) drawing on large bodies of background knowledge; and (iii) doing both in light of observations that introduce arbitrary novel variables. Our MSA approach captures human judgments better than language model-only baselines, under both direct and chain-of-thought generations from the LM that supports model synthesis. These results suggest that MSAs can be implemented in a way that mirrors people's ability to deliver locally coherent reasoning over globally relevant variables, offering a path to understanding and replicating human reasoning in open-ended domains.

Lionel Wong, Katherine M. Collins, Lance Ying, Cedegao E. Zhang, Adrian Weller, Tobias Gerstenberg, Timothy O'Donnell, Alexander K. Lew, Jacob D. Andreas, Joshua B. Tenenbaum, Tyler Brooke-Wilson
arXiv:2507.12547 · cs.CL, cs.AI, cs.PL · submitted Jul 16, 2025 · updated Jul 18, 2025
abstract · pdf · html · Presented at CogSci 2025

add comment on HN