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Efficient LLM:Bandwidth, Compute, Synchronization, and Capacity are all you need (arxiv.org)
6 points by matt_d on Oct 1, 2025 | hide | past | pdf | discuss on HN

In plain words: A calculator-style model predicts how fast a chatbot generates words by matching software needs to chip limits, for today's and future hardware. It finds memory and compute limits cap output near 10,000 tokens per second, so faster chat needs new algorithms, not better chips.

Abstract · LIMINAL: Exploring The Frontiers of LLM Decode Performance

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) necessitates a deep understanding of their fundamental performance limits. This paper investigates the limits of LLM inference, focusing on hardware-imposed bottlenecks in auto-regressive decoding. We develop LIMINAL, an analytical performance model that abstracts application requirements and hardware capabilities to systematically explore performance and efficiency across a wide range of current, near-future, and hypothetical hardware. We find LIMINAL is accurate when comparing to LLMs executing on existing hardware, achieving a mean absolute error of $7.6\%$. Our analysis spans from current HBM3 memory technology used in AI accelerators like GPUs and TPUs to systems based on advanced HBM4 and advanced 3D-stacked DRAM technology. We identify five non-negotiable challenges for LLM inference hardware, establishing compute, memory capacity, bandwidth and collective communication as primary barriers to performance. These findings suggest that achieving significant performance gains beyond 10,000 tokens-per-second will require not just hardware evolution but also fundamental algorithmic advances.

Michael Davies, Neal Crago, Karthikeyan Sankaralingam, Christos Kozyrakis
arXiv:2507.14397 · cs.AR · submitted Jul 18, 2025 · updated Nov 13, 2025
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