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Speculative Speculative Decoding (SSD) (arxiv.org)
61 points by E-Reverance 214 days ago | hide | past | pdf | 9 comments on HN

In plain words: Normally a fast helper guesses words while a slow model checks them in order; here the helper guesses ahead while the check runs, so the next guess is ready instantly. The finished version runs about 30% faster than the usual guessing-and-checking setup.

Abstract · Speculative Speculative Decoding

Autoregressive decoding is bottlenecked by its sequential nature. Speculative decoding has become a standard way to accelerate inference by using a fast draft model to predict upcoming tokens from a slower target model, and then verifying them in parallel with a single target model forward pass. However, speculative decoding itself relies on a sequential dependence between speculation and verification. We introduce speculative speculative decoding (SSD) to parallelize these operations. While a verification is ongoing, the draft model predicts likely verification outcomes and prepares speculations pre-emptively for them. If the actual verification outcome is then in the predicted set, a speculation can be returned immediately, eliminating drafting overhead entirely. We identify three key challenges presented by speculative speculative decoding, and suggest principled methods to solve each. The result is Saguaro, an optimized SSD algorithm. Our implementation is on average 30% faster than optimized speculative decoding baselines and up to 5x faster than autoregressive decoding with open source inference engines.

Tanishq Kumar, Tri Dao, Avner May
arXiv:2603.03251 · cs.LG · submitted Mar 3, 2026 · updated May 4, 2026
abstract · pdf · html · ICLR 2026

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Neat. Very similar to tree-based speculation as they point out, and they also point how to combine them.

Speculative decoding: Sample a linear output (next n tokens) from draft model, submit it to a verifier model. At some index the verifier might reject a token and say that no, actually the next token should be this other token instead ("bonus token" in this paper), and that's your output. Or if it accepts the whole draft, you still get a bonus token as the next token past the draft. Then you draft again from that prefix on.

Tree-based speculation: Sample a tree of outputs from draft model, submit whole tree to verifier, pick longest accepted prefix (and its bonus token).

Speculative speculative decoding: Sample a linear output from draft model, then in parallel both verify it with the verifier model, and produce a tree of drafts branching out from different rejection points and different choices of bonus tokens at those points. When the verifier finishes, you might have have a new draft ready to submit right away.

Combined: Sample a tree from the draft model, submit the whole tree to the verifier and in parallel also plan out drafts for different rejection points with different bonus tokens anywhere in the tree.

> Our implementation is up to 2x faster than optimized speculative decoding baselines and up to 5x faster than autoregressive decoding with open source inference engines

what about per-FLOP?

This is interesting stuff. I wonder if these sorts of tricks are already in use at the big labs.

Incidentally, I would recommend trying implementing speculative decoding yourself if you really want to understand LLM inference internals (that, and KV caching of course). I tried it over the Christmas holidays and it was a wonderful learning experience. (And hard work, especially because I forced myself to do it by hand without coding agent assistance.)

i think this matters more for lower batch sizes (local llm and private enterprise deployment where there wont be big user at specific time for big batch size) going from mem Io bottleneck to compute.
Note that a similar idea had already been suggested by Shen et al. (2025) in Speculative Decoding via Hybrid Drafting and Rollback-Aware Branch Parallelism (https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.01979), but with lower performance.
Yo dawg I heard you liked speculation so we speculated your speculating
Wait till they speculate the speculation's speculation. Yo dawg I heard that yo dawg I heard
Is it gonna be speculation all the way down?
We're almost to Duddits Decoding (SSDD)