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Why averaging LLM benchmark scores is fundamentally broken (arxiv.org)
1 point by testofschool 94 days ago | hide | past | pdf | discuss on HN

In plain words: Scoring a test by simply averaging results breaks down when many items are missing and questions vary widely in difficulty. A scoring model that adjusts for each item's difficulty kept rankings nearly identical to the truth (correlation at least 0.996) where averaging fell to 0.809.

Abstract · The Scaling Law of Evaluation Failure: Why Simple Averaging Collapses Under Data Sparsity and Item Difficulty Gaps, and How Item Response Theory Recovers Ground Truth Across Domains

Benchmark evaluation across AI and safety-critical domains overwhelmingly relies on simple averaging. We demonstrate that this practice produces substantially misleading rankings when two conditions co-occur: (1) the evaluation matrix is sparse and (2) items vary substantially in difficulty. Through controlled simulation experiments across four domains -- NLP (GLUE), clinical drug trials, autonomous vehicle safety, and cybersecurity -- we show that Spearman rank correlation $ρ$ between simple-average rankings and ground-truth rankings degrades from $ρ= 1.000$ at 100% coverage to $ρ= 0.809$ at 67% coverage with high difficulty heterogeneity (mean over 20 seeds). A standard two-parameter logistic (2PL) Item Response Theory (IRT) model maintains $ρ\geq 0.996$ across all conditions. A 150-condition grid sweep over sparsity $S \in [0, 0.70]$ and difficulty gap $D \in [0.5, 5.0]$ confirms that ranking error forms a failure surface with a strong $S \times D$ interaction ($γ_3 = +0.20$, $t = 13.05$), while IRT maintains $ρ\geq 0.993$ throughout. We discuss implications for Physical AI benchmarking, where evaluation matrices are often incomplete and difficulty gaps are extreme.

Jung Min Kang
arXiv:2605.11205 · cs.LG, cs.AI · submitted May 11, 2026
abstract · pdf · html · 15 pages, 4 tables, 1 figure. Code at https://github.com/testofschool/evaluation-failure-scaling-law

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