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Universal Learning of Nonlinear Dynamics (arxiv.org)
2 points by E-Reverance 83 days ago | hide | past | pdf | discuss on HN

In plain words: It learns to predict a system's next observation from its past ones by breaking the motion into repeating frequency patterns, so it works even when the system never settles down. Prediction error shrinks to zero for any such system with finitely many such patterns.

Abstract

We study the fundamental problem of learning a marginally stable unknown nonlinear dynamical system. We describe an algorithm for this problem, based on the technique of spectral filtering, which learns a mapping from past observations to the next based on a spectral representation of the system. Using techniques from online convex optimization, we prove vanishing prediction error for any nonlinear dynamical system that has finitely many marginally stable modes, with rates governed by a novel quantitative control-theoretic notion of learnability. The main technical component of our method is a new spectral filtering algorithm for linear dynamical systems, which incorporates past observations and applies to general noisy and marginally stable systems. This significantly generalizes the original spectral filtering algorithm to both asymmetric dynamics as well as incorporating noise correction, and is of independent interest.

Evan Dogariu, Anand Brahmbhatt, Elad Hazan
arXiv:2508.11990 · cs.LG, math.OC, stat.ML · submitted Aug 16, 2025
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